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<p>The Maldivian economy relies heavily on climate-sensitive sectors and is significantly impacted by seasonal climate variability, especially phenomena like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This study aims to explore the complexities of the ENSO and the IOD, as well as their connections to local rainfall and sea-level variability throughout the seasons. Composite analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind patterns were conducted using average SST and zonal wind anomalies associated with five high and five low extreme events. To investigate the relationship between SST, sea level, and rainfall, a correlation analysis was performed by correlating the SST and zonal wind time series at each geographical grid point with annual sea level and rainfall data. The findings indicate that ENSO and IOD have a strong influence on seasonal climate variability in the Maldives. During El Niño, the country experiences dry spells and lower sea levels, while La Niña brings wetter conditions and higher sea levels. These effects are particularly noticeable in the northern regions, such as Hanimaadhoo, and the central islands, including Hulhulé, while the southern island of Gan shows no clear association with these patterns. Given the climate challenges facing the Maldives, closely monitoring ENSO and IOD is essential, as it can complement the seasonal outlook products of the Maldives Meteorological Service (MMC) and support more informed decision-making for managing climate-related risks and enhancing coastal resilience, in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13.</p>

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ENSO and seasonal climate variability in the Maldives: an analysis of early warning opportunities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月29日

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  • Md Rashed Chowdhury,
  • Azeema Ahmed,
  • Sheena Moosa,
  • Shazla Mohamed

摘要

The Maldivian economy relies heavily on climate-sensitive sectors and is significantly impacted by seasonal climate variability, especially phenomena like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This study aims to explore the complexities of the ENSO and the IOD, as well as their connections to local rainfall and sea-level variability throughout the seasons. Composite analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind patterns were conducted using average SST and zonal wind anomalies associated with five high and five low extreme events. To investigate the relationship between SST, sea level, and rainfall, a correlation analysis was performed by correlating the SST and zonal wind time series at each geographical grid point with annual sea level and rainfall data. The findings indicate that ENSO and IOD have a strong influence on seasonal climate variability in the Maldives. During El Niño, the country experiences dry spells and lower sea levels, while La Niña brings wetter conditions and higher sea levels. These effects are particularly noticeable in the northern regions, such as Hanimaadhoo, and the central islands, including Hulhulé, while the southern island of Gan shows no clear association with these patterns. Given the climate challenges facing the Maldives, closely monitoring ENSO and IOD is essential, as it can complement the seasonal outlook products of the Maldives Meteorological Service (MMC) and support more informed decision-making for managing climate-related risks and enhancing coastal resilience, in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13.