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<p>Mountainous northern Vietnam faces elevated livelihood risks due to steep terrain, climatic variability, and infrastructure deficits. This study evaluates livelihood sustainability across 14 provinces using an integrated framework that combines Geographic Information System analysis, a Livelihood Sustainability Index (LSI; 0–10 scale) derived through analytic hierarchy process weighting and min–max normalisation, and multivariate linear regression. Long-term climate variability is examined with modified Mann–Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimates for 1980–2024. The analysis reveals pronounced spatial heterogeneity: provinces such as Lao Cai, Yen Bai, Ha Giang, and Lai Chau cluster in the poor-sustainability range (LSI &lt; 4.0), whereas Hoa Binh, Bac Giang, and Lang Son attain provincial means above 6.5. Regression results (standardised coefficients) indicate negative associations between the LSI and disaster frequency (β = −0.432), temperature variability (β = −0.368), and land-degradation proxies (β = −0.291), and a positive association with household adaptation expenditure (β = 0.472); mean precipitation exhibits a modest positive association. These relationships are associative rather than causal but are consistent with observed climate trends and mapped hazard patterns. Policy priorities emerging from the results include slope stabilisation and nature-based measures, climate-informed extension on water management and diversification, and risk-financing mechanisms to enable adaptation investments. The proposed framework provides decision-relevant evidence to target interventions that strengthen livelihood resilience in data-scarce mountain environments and can be transferred to comparable high-risk regions.</p>

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Assessing livelihood vulnerability to climate change and disasters in Northern Vietnam

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月24日

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  • Quoc Lap Kieu,
  • Thi Ngoc Ha Tran

摘要

Mountainous northern Vietnam faces elevated livelihood risks due to steep terrain, climatic variability, and infrastructure deficits. This study evaluates livelihood sustainability across 14 provinces using an integrated framework that combines Geographic Information System analysis, a Livelihood Sustainability Index (LSI; 0–10 scale) derived through analytic hierarchy process weighting and min–max normalisation, and multivariate linear regression. Long-term climate variability is examined with modified Mann–Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimates for 1980–2024. The analysis reveals pronounced spatial heterogeneity: provinces such as Lao Cai, Yen Bai, Ha Giang, and Lai Chau cluster in the poor-sustainability range (LSI < 4.0), whereas Hoa Binh, Bac Giang, and Lang Son attain provincial means above 6.5. Regression results (standardised coefficients) indicate negative associations between the LSI and disaster frequency (β = −0.432), temperature variability (β = −0.368), and land-degradation proxies (β = −0.291), and a positive association with household adaptation expenditure (β = 0.472); mean precipitation exhibits a modest positive association. These relationships are associative rather than causal but are consistent with observed climate trends and mapped hazard patterns. Policy priorities emerging from the results include slope stabilisation and nature-based measures, climate-informed extension on water management and diversification, and risk-financing mechanisms to enable adaptation investments. The proposed framework provides decision-relevant evidence to target interventions that strengthen livelihood resilience in data-scarce mountain environments and can be transferred to comparable high-risk regions.