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<p>Water resources in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB) of Ethiopia are increasingly threatened by human-induced climate and LULC changes. This study evaluates the impacts from climate and LULC changes on water balance components (WBCs) within the Bilate, Gidabo, and Gelana watersheds. CMIP6-GCMs were applied to simulate historical (1985–2014) and future projections under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 for the 2050s (2035–2064) and 2080s (2065–2094). LULC classification for 2002, 2013, and 2024 was conducted using a Random Forest (RF) classifier on Google Earth Engine, while future LULC for 2050 and 2080 was predicted using RF integrated with Cellular Automata–Markov Chain. Agriculture, agroforestry, and built-up areas are predicted to expand by 1.99%, 3.52%, and 0.98%, respectively, while pasture, rangeland, and barren land are expected to decline between 2024 and 2080. SWAT+ demonstrated strong performance and was used to simulate WBCs. Under SSP5-8.5 in the 2050s (2080s), precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin are projected to increase by 1.36–3.36 (4.29–5.11) mm/year, 0.044–0.047 (0.066–0.072) °C/year, and 0.077–0.087 (0.124–0.132) °C/year, respectively. Under the climate change scenario, surface runoff (SURQ) is expected to rise by 0.45–1.13 (1.36–1.74) mm/year, and evapotranspiration (ET) by 0.94–1.93 (2.3–2.98) mm/year. Under the combined LULC and SSP5-8.5 scenario, SURQ may change by –0.14–1.3 (–0.55–1.72) mm/year, and ET may increase by 0.24–3.32 (1.95–5.07) mm/year. These hydrological responses suggest water availability but also increased risks of flooding and water scarcity, emphasizing climate-resilient and LULC-sensitive water management strategies.</p>

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Modeling climate and land use land cover changes impact on water balance in the Rift Valley Lake Basin, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月30日

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  • Yonas Ademe Woldemariam,
  • Tena Alamirew,
  • Tekalegn Ayele Woldesenbet

摘要

Water resources in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB) of Ethiopia are increasingly threatened by human-induced climate and LULC changes. This study evaluates the impacts from climate and LULC changes on water balance components (WBCs) within the Bilate, Gidabo, and Gelana watersheds. CMIP6-GCMs were applied to simulate historical (1985–2014) and future projections under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 for the 2050s (2035–2064) and 2080s (2065–2094). LULC classification for 2002, 2013, and 2024 was conducted using a Random Forest (RF) classifier on Google Earth Engine, while future LULC for 2050 and 2080 was predicted using RF integrated with Cellular Automata–Markov Chain. Agriculture, agroforestry, and built-up areas are predicted to expand by 1.99%, 3.52%, and 0.98%, respectively, while pasture, rangeland, and barren land are expected to decline between 2024 and 2080. SWAT+ demonstrated strong performance and was used to simulate WBCs. Under SSP5-8.5 in the 2050s (2080s), precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin are projected to increase by 1.36–3.36 (4.29–5.11) mm/year, 0.044–0.047 (0.066–0.072) °C/year, and 0.077–0.087 (0.124–0.132) °C/year, respectively. Under the climate change scenario, surface runoff (SURQ) is expected to rise by 0.45–1.13 (1.36–1.74) mm/year, and evapotranspiration (ET) by 0.94–1.93 (2.3–2.98) mm/year. Under the combined LULC and SSP5-8.5 scenario, SURQ may change by –0.14–1.3 (–0.55–1.72) mm/year, and ET may increase by 0.24–3.32 (1.95–5.07) mm/year. These hydrological responses suggest water availability but also increased risks of flooding and water scarcity, emphasizing climate-resilient and LULC-sensitive water management strategies.