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<p>Extreme climate events remain a threat to agriculture and food security globally. However, the availability of reliable information about historical and projected climate extremes yet remains a challenge, particularly in developing countries. This study examined the projected climate extremes trends and changes in occurrences in Ethiopia using eight temperature and precipitation-related indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Global Climate Models (GCMs) from phase VI of the Climate Model Intercomparisons Project (CMIP6) with a resolution of 5&#xa0;km by 5&#xa0;km and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP245 and SSP585 were used for two future periods of 2035s (2021–2050) and 2065s (2051–2080). Downscaling was performed using the bias correction/constructed analogues with quantile mapping reordering method. Results indicated that consecutive dry days (CDD) are projected to increase, particularly in southeastern Ethiopia, which could experience up to 40 additional dry days per climatological periods. On the other hand, consecutive wet days (CWD) are projected to decrease by up to 10 days in northern and southeastern regions, with some areas experiencing increases of up to 40 days. The UKESM1_0_LL and MPI-ESM1_2_HR models showed notable regional variations. Days with heavy precipitation (R20) are expected to increase by up to 40 days in northwestern Ethiopia, though most regions will see changes between − 5 and 5 days. Maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) is projected to become more intense in central and southeastern highlands, with values exceeding 200&#xa0;mm/day in some areas. Standard precipitation index (SPI) results indicated more frequent severe droughts (SPI &lt; -1.5), particularly affecting central, southern, and southwestern regions, with projections of extreme drought frequency of once in four years. Consecutive summer days (CSU) are projected to increase by up to 80 days, and the heatwave duration index (HWDI) is estimated to increase by an average of 30 days during the main rainy season. This study underscored that Ethiopia’s rainfed agriculture system will likely face exacerbated and frequent severe droughts, posing significant challenges to food security. These findings are critical for informing stakeholders and guiding policy development to address climate change vulnerabilities, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptation measures to ensure sustainable agricultural production.</p>

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Exploring the dynamics of past and future climate extremes under CMIP6: implications for rainfed agriculture

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月29日

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  • Fikadu Getachew,
  • Haimanote Bayabil,
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom,
  • Gregory A. Kiker,
  • Ziwen Yu,
  • Yuncong Li

摘要

Extreme climate events remain a threat to agriculture and food security globally. However, the availability of reliable information about historical and projected climate extremes yet remains a challenge, particularly in developing countries. This study examined the projected climate extremes trends and changes in occurrences in Ethiopia using eight temperature and precipitation-related indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Global Climate Models (GCMs) from phase VI of the Climate Model Intercomparisons Project (CMIP6) with a resolution of 5 km by 5 km and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP245 and SSP585 were used for two future periods of 2035s (2021–2050) and 2065s (2051–2080). Downscaling was performed using the bias correction/constructed analogues with quantile mapping reordering method. Results indicated that consecutive dry days (CDD) are projected to increase, particularly in southeastern Ethiopia, which could experience up to 40 additional dry days per climatological periods. On the other hand, consecutive wet days (CWD) are projected to decrease by up to 10 days in northern and southeastern regions, with some areas experiencing increases of up to 40 days. The UKESM1_0_LL and MPI-ESM1_2_HR models showed notable regional variations. Days with heavy precipitation (R20) are expected to increase by up to 40 days in northwestern Ethiopia, though most regions will see changes between − 5 and 5 days. Maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) is projected to become more intense in central and southeastern highlands, with values exceeding 200 mm/day in some areas. Standard precipitation index (SPI) results indicated more frequent severe droughts (SPI < -1.5), particularly affecting central, southern, and southwestern regions, with projections of extreme drought frequency of once in four years. Consecutive summer days (CSU) are projected to increase by up to 80 days, and the heatwave duration index (HWDI) is estimated to increase by an average of 30 days during the main rainy season. This study underscored that Ethiopia’s rainfed agriculture system will likely face exacerbated and frequent severe droughts, posing significant challenges to food security. These findings are critical for informing stakeholders and guiding policy development to address climate change vulnerabilities, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptation measures to ensure sustainable agricultural production.