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<p>Minas Gerais is the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee. This study performedagroclimatic and mechanization zoning for Arabica coffee in Minas Gerais to assess current conditions and future climate change projections, aiming to understandpotential impacts on coffee production and possible shifts in cultivation areas. Climate data from 1991 to 2020 were used to characterize present climate conditions. The water balance was calculated for each pixel, taking into account the variable a vailable water capacity. A water risk analysis was conducted based on annual water deficits. Four socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, or SSPs) were adopted for future climate projections, covering four periods up to the year 2100. Currently, about 23% of the state’s territory is classified as climatically suitable for coffee cultivation, although most of these areas face mechanization constraints. Future climate change scenarios indicate a reduction in suitable areas for coffee cultivation due to rising temperatures and increasing water deficits.</p>

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Climatic and mechanization effects on Arabica coffee suitability cultivation with climate change potential impacts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月17日

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  • Flávio Vanoni de Carvalho Júnior,
  • Marcelo de Carvalho Alves,
  • Fortunato Silva de Menezes,
  • Luiz Gonsaga de Carvalho

摘要

Minas Gerais is the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee. This study performedagroclimatic and mechanization zoning for Arabica coffee in Minas Gerais to assess current conditions and future climate change projections, aiming to understandpotential impacts on coffee production and possible shifts in cultivation areas. Climate data from 1991 to 2020 were used to characterize present climate conditions. The water balance was calculated for each pixel, taking into account the variable a vailable water capacity. A water risk analysis was conducted based on annual water deficits. Four socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, or SSPs) were adopted for future climate projections, covering four periods up to the year 2100. Currently, about 23% of the state’s territory is classified as climatically suitable for coffee cultivation, although most of these areas face mechanization constraints. Future climate change scenarios indicate a reduction in suitable areas for coffee cultivation due to rising temperatures and increasing water deficits.