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<p>North African Mediterranean regions are characterised by arid and semi-arid climates with high precipitation variability and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. We investigated four medicinal plant species across five North African countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt). <i>Pistacia atlantica</i> Desf., <i>Searsia tripartita</i> (Ucria) Grande, <i>Searsia pentaphylla</i> (Jacq.), and <i>Ziziphus lotus</i> (L.) Lam. Using species occurrence data and selected bioclimatic variables, the MaxEnt model predicted their potential distributions under current and future climate scenarios. Precipitation and temperature variables, especially precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO17) and annual precipitation (BIO12), mainly shaped species distributions. For <i>P. atlantica</i>, BIO17 accounted for 48.6% and BIO12 accounted for 45.4% of the distribution influence; for <i>S. tripartita</i>, BIO12 and BIO17 accounted for 43.1% and 32.5%, respectively; <i>S. pentaphylla</i> was primarily influenced by BIO19 (53.6%); and for <i>Z. lotus</i>, BIO17 and BIO12 accounted for 61.2% and 25.8%, respectively. Currently, highly suitable habitats for <i>P. atlantica</i>, <i>S. tripartita</i>, <i>S. pentaphylla</i>, and <i>Z. lotus</i> cover 4.74%, 1.82%, 1.38%, and 7.32% of the study area, respectively, mainly along the northern coast. <i>S. pentaphylla</i> shows high suitability along northern coastal areas of Morocco and Algeria and northeastern Tunisia. <i>Z. lotus</i> is primarily found in northern Morocco and parts of Algeria’s coastal and southeastern regions. Northern coastal North Africa is the main high-suitability zone for all species. Under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585), <i>P. atlantica</i> and <i>Z. lotus</i> show generally stable or expanding distributions, while <i>S. tripartita</i> and <i>S. pentaphylla</i> habitats are projected to decline, especially under extreme climate conditions. The expansion of highly suitable habitats was primarily observed in Morocco and Algeria, whereas Tunisia was in the initial favorable range. These findings provide important insights for conservation and sustainable use of these medicinal plants amid climate change.</p>

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Prediction of potential suitable areas for four medicinal plants in arid areas in North Africa under climate change scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月20日

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  • Baojun Liu,
  • Ling Li,
  • Kaouther Mechergui,
  • Wahbi Jaouadi,
  • Zeyuan Zhao,
  • Le Liu,
  • Agudamu,
  • Jingxia Guo,
  • Feibiao Shan,
  • Youssef Ammari,
  • Minhui Li

摘要

North African Mediterranean regions are characterised by arid and semi-arid climates with high precipitation variability and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. We investigated four medicinal plant species across five North African countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt). Pistacia atlantica Desf., Searsia tripartita (Ucria) Grande, Searsia pentaphylla (Jacq.), and Ziziphus lotus (L.) Lam. Using species occurrence data and selected bioclimatic variables, the MaxEnt model predicted their potential distributions under current and future climate scenarios. Precipitation and temperature variables, especially precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO17) and annual precipitation (BIO12), mainly shaped species distributions. For P. atlantica, BIO17 accounted for 48.6% and BIO12 accounted for 45.4% of the distribution influence; for S. tripartita, BIO12 and BIO17 accounted for 43.1% and 32.5%, respectively; S. pentaphylla was primarily influenced by BIO19 (53.6%); and for Z. lotus, BIO17 and BIO12 accounted for 61.2% and 25.8%, respectively. Currently, highly suitable habitats for P. atlantica, S. tripartita, S. pentaphylla, and Z. lotus cover 4.74%, 1.82%, 1.38%, and 7.32% of the study area, respectively, mainly along the northern coast. S. pentaphylla shows high suitability along northern coastal areas of Morocco and Algeria and northeastern Tunisia. Z. lotus is primarily found in northern Morocco and parts of Algeria’s coastal and southeastern regions. Northern coastal North Africa is the main high-suitability zone for all species. Under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585), P. atlantica and Z. lotus show generally stable or expanding distributions, while S. tripartita and S. pentaphylla habitats are projected to decline, especially under extreme climate conditions. The expansion of highly suitable habitats was primarily observed in Morocco and Algeria, whereas Tunisia was in the initial favorable range. These findings provide important insights for conservation and sustainable use of these medicinal plants amid climate change.