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<p>Climate change and anthropogenic factors have heightened the variability of weather patterns, necessitating an understanding of these oscillations and their impact on local climates. A clear assessment is critical for developing effective adaptation strategies for agriculture, water management, and disaster response. Tanzania is mostly reliant on agriculture, which is greatly impacted by the weather. Variations in the amount of rainfall can impact livelihoods and cause acute food insecurity. There is a need for thorough research on weather patterns because prior studies have shown that both natural and human-induced causes can alter regional climates. Utilizing historical climate data from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), the study analyses trends in precipitation, temperature, Cumulative Wet Days (CWD) and Dry Days (CDD) variations by employing Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope Q<sub>2</sub>. Correlation between CWD and CDD, in relation to significant climate oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed a 45.9&#xa0;mm/decade decline in annual precipitation (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) alongside asymmetric warming of + 0.2&#xa0;°C/decade across Tanzania (1950–2020). Central regions showed significant dry spell intensification (e.g., Dodoma, + 1.8 CDD days/decade), while northern areas exhibited strong ENSO/IOD teleconnections. These changes show a strong correlation with large oscillations in local weather systems, indicating a threat to the long-standing climate norms. The results highlight how crucial it is for decision-makers to concentrate on climate resilience measures like better farming practices and water conservation. This study shows how localised weather variations can combine to generate major changes in ecological and social systems, offering important insights into the larger ramifications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>

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Assessing climate oscillations in Tanzania: analysis of dry and wet periods from 1950 to 2020

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月29日

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  • Dawido S. Magang

摘要

Climate change and anthropogenic factors have heightened the variability of weather patterns, necessitating an understanding of these oscillations and their impact on local climates. A clear assessment is critical for developing effective adaptation strategies for agriculture, water management, and disaster response. Tanzania is mostly reliant on agriculture, which is greatly impacted by the weather. Variations in the amount of rainfall can impact livelihoods and cause acute food insecurity. There is a need for thorough research on weather patterns because prior studies have shown that both natural and human-induced causes can alter regional climates. Utilizing historical climate data from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), the study analyses trends in precipitation, temperature, Cumulative Wet Days (CWD) and Dry Days (CDD) variations by employing Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope Q2. Correlation between CWD and CDD, in relation to significant climate oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed a 45.9 mm/decade decline in annual precipitation (p < 0.05) alongside asymmetric warming of + 0.2 °C/decade across Tanzania (1950–2020). Central regions showed significant dry spell intensification (e.g., Dodoma, + 1.8 CDD days/decade), while northern areas exhibited strong ENSO/IOD teleconnections. These changes show a strong correlation with large oscillations in local weather systems, indicating a threat to the long-standing climate norms. The results highlight how crucial it is for decision-makers to concentrate on climate resilience measures like better farming practices and water conservation. This study shows how localised weather variations can combine to generate major changes in ecological and social systems, offering important insights into the larger ramifications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa.