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<p>Drought causes substantial annual damage to the agricultural sector, prompting governments to support farmers through agricultural insurance. However, estimating drought-induced Damages remains a significant challenge. This study aimed to develop an accurate and cost-effective method for assessing drought damage in rainfed wheat cultivation. Unlike conventional drought indices that consider only meteorological conditions, this study develops an adjusted drought damage index by integrating the Standardized Precipitation (SP), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with crop coefficient (Kc) values tailored to the phenological stages of rainfed wheat. Over five years, 114,147 rainfed wheat fields were identified, and their biomass was calculated using the Light Use Efficiency (LUE) model. The accuracy of the model was validated using 39 field samples. Meteorological data required for the analysis were sourced from ERA5-Land, while Sentinel-2 imagery was employed for biomass calculation using the LUE. Spatial analysis of biomass revealed significant variability across the study area, which appeared to be influenced by weather conditions, soil quality, topography, and management practices. For this reason, damage correlations with the adjusted drought indices were analyzed within 10 × 10&#xa0;km grid cells. The findings indicated a strong correlation between damage and the adjusted indices, with the highest accuracy achieved by MSPEI, followed by MSP and MSPI. However, no significant differences were observed among these indices, as most correlations exceeded 0.8. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that linear regression modeling for each grid enables the estimation of damage using the analyzed drought indices.</p>

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A novel approach to estimating drought-Induced damage in rainfed wheat cultivation using modified drought indices

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月17日

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  • Rahman Barideh,
  • Fereshteh Nasimi

摘要

Drought causes substantial annual damage to the agricultural sector, prompting governments to support farmers through agricultural insurance. However, estimating drought-induced Damages remains a significant challenge. This study aimed to develop an accurate and cost-effective method for assessing drought damage in rainfed wheat cultivation. Unlike conventional drought indices that consider only meteorological conditions, this study develops an adjusted drought damage index by integrating the Standardized Precipitation (SP), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with crop coefficient (Kc) values tailored to the phenological stages of rainfed wheat. Over five years, 114,147 rainfed wheat fields were identified, and their biomass was calculated using the Light Use Efficiency (LUE) model. The accuracy of the model was validated using 39 field samples. Meteorological data required for the analysis were sourced from ERA5-Land, while Sentinel-2 imagery was employed for biomass calculation using the LUE. Spatial analysis of biomass revealed significant variability across the study area, which appeared to be influenced by weather conditions, soil quality, topography, and management practices. For this reason, damage correlations with the adjusted drought indices were analyzed within 10 × 10 km grid cells. The findings indicated a strong correlation between damage and the adjusted indices, with the highest accuracy achieved by MSPEI, followed by MSP and MSPI. However, no significant differences were observed among these indices, as most correlations exceeded 0.8. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that linear regression modeling for each grid enables the estimation of damage using the analyzed drought indices.