Analyzing the dynamics of urban heat Islands using a multi-temporal approach; evidence from Tabriz, Iran
摘要
This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity and the identification of its influential factors, including NDVI, NDBI, LST, UHI, AQI, and RH indices, across the ten districts of Tabriz metropolis during the period of 1984 to 2024. Landsat 5 and 8 satellite data (TM, TIRS, and OLI sensors) were utilized to calculate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity. Additionally, the ASCE Penman-Monteith standard method was employed for Relative Humidity (RH), and air quality monitoring station data from Tabriz were used for the Air Quality Index (AQI). Multiple linear regression analysis, performed using SPSS 26 software, revealed an increase in the coefficient of determination (R²) from 0.61 in 1984 to 0.72 in 2004 and 0.81 in 2024. This indicates a strengthening influence of NDBI (β = 0.75) and LST (β = 0.85) on UHI intensity. In 2024, NDVI (β=-0.40) and RH (β=-0.08) showed significant reductive effects (p < 0.05) on UHI, whereas NDBI and AQI contributed to its intensification with positive coefficients of 0.75 and 0.35, respectively. These findings confirm the dominant role of expanding built-up areas and decreasing vegetation cover in increasing urban temperatures over the past four decades. The results highlight the necessity of formulating sustainable urban planning policies, with an emphasis on developing green infrastructure and optimizing land use management, to mitigate the negative impacts of Urban Heat Islands in metropolises.