Idealized simulation of tropical cyclone using CMIP6 climate projection for the Bay of Bengal region
摘要
Idealized simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) were performed using Weather Research and Forecasting model to investigate the probable modifications to the intensity and structure of TCs under future projected climate for the Bay of Bengal region. The future climate perturbations were estimated using an ensemble of ten general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs. The climate perturbations were added to the present climate (2001–2020) using the pseudo global warming method. The future projected climate was characterized by a significantly higher sea surface temperature with warmer and moister atmosphere. The maximum intensity in terms of 10-m wind speed of the simulated TC for the near-future (2041–2060) and far-future (2081–2100) climate was decreased by 9.05% and 29.97%, respectively compared to the present climate (54.54 m/s). However, the near-future climate showed the highest amount of rainfall, whereas, the far-future climate showed the lowest. Both the future climates have simulated TCs with cooler core temperature, higher outflow temperature, and lower surface heat fluxes. The reduced TC maximum intensity for future climates was attributed to significant warming at the upper-troposphere. The enhanced upper-tropospheric warming led to increased atmospheric stabilization which further led to reduced convection and ultimately resulted in lower TC maximum intensity.