Spatiotemporal changes in human thermal comfort across iran: future projections of UTCImin variability for land cover and elevation classes
摘要
This study examines the spatiotemporal changes in climate comfort across Iran, focusing on different land cover and elevation classes, along with future projections. The minimum Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCImin) gridded data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) database was employed for the base period (1985–2014), along with an ensemble of 8 GCMs for the near future (2030–2059) and far future (2060–2099) based on two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5). The results indicate that cold stress is the dominant phenomenon, affecting 99% of Iran’s area in January. The maximum extent of heat stress occurs in August, covering approximately 18% of the country. Under both scenarios, UTCImin values are projected to rise in the future, leading to a contraction of cold stress areas and an increase in hot thermal stress, particularly in the far future under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Trend analysis reveals a positive increase in UTCImin values across parts of the study area, with more pronounced and widespread impacts in the far future. The effects of global warming on the UTCImin index vary across different land cover and elevation classes. The results of this study will provide valuable insights for future research on climate comfort in Iran, serving as a basis for developing localized strategies to mitigate thermal stress and improve the resilience of the population to extreme temperature conditions.