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<p>This study integrates artificial intelligence (AI)-based climate modeling with observational rainfall data to analyze seasonal precipitation trends and hydrological extremes in the Birr watershed, northwest Ethiopia. While the total annual rainfall revealed no significant long-term trend, seasonal dynamics shifted markedly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), with the main rainy season starting five days earlier and ending three days later per decade—resulting in an 18-day extension between 1981 and 2024. Extreme rainfall events (≥ 95th percentile) increased by 76% (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), raising flood risks, while prolonged dry spells (lasting two or more months with &lt; 50&#xa0;mm rainfall) rose by 27% after 2000 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), indicating a clear intensification of hydrological extremes. Future projections (2025–2050) suggest 35–45% longer dry spells, a 10–15% increase in April–May rainfall, and a 15–20% decline in July rainfall, indicating a substantial intra-seasonal shift in rainfall distribution. These findings are consistent with trends observed in northern Ethiopia, reflect a broader intensification of seasonal rainfall variability likely linked to regional climate dynamics. The results underline the urgent need for adaptive measures, including soil moisture conservation and flexible reservoir management, to mitigate increasing rainfall variability and hydrological risks.</p>

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AI-Enhanced analysis of seasonal rainfall trends and variability in the Ethiopian highlands (1981–2050)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月4日

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  • Ermias Debie

摘要

This study integrates artificial intelligence (AI)-based climate modeling with observational rainfall data to analyze seasonal precipitation trends and hydrological extremes in the Birr watershed, northwest Ethiopia. While the total annual rainfall revealed no significant long-term trend, seasonal dynamics shifted markedly (p < 0.05), with the main rainy season starting five days earlier and ending three days later per decade—resulting in an 18-day extension between 1981 and 2024. Extreme rainfall events (≥ 95th percentile) increased by 76% (p < 0.01), raising flood risks, while prolonged dry spells (lasting two or more months with < 50 mm rainfall) rose by 27% after 2000 (p < 0.05), indicating a clear intensification of hydrological extremes. Future projections (2025–2050) suggest 35–45% longer dry spells, a 10–15% increase in April–May rainfall, and a 15–20% decline in July rainfall, indicating a substantial intra-seasonal shift in rainfall distribution. These findings are consistent with trends observed in northern Ethiopia, reflect a broader intensification of seasonal rainfall variability likely linked to regional climate dynamics. The results underline the urgent need for adaptive measures, including soil moisture conservation and flexible reservoir management, to mitigate increasing rainfall variability and hydrological risks.