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<p>This study analyzes landfalling Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in Vietnam (1979–2020) using <i>k</i>-means clustering. Two clusters were identified based on dissipation locations: Cluster I with 36 cases and Cluster II with 69 cases. The two clusters show distinct environmental characteristics. Differences in sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and vertical wind shear influence whether TCs tend to move northward or southward. The westward extension of the western North Pacific Subtropical High near southern China appears to delay TC recurvature, increasing the likelihood of landfall in Vietnam. The TCs in each cluster were characterized at three key stages: approaching point (AP), landfall point (LP), and departing point (DP). For Tropical Storms and Severe Tropical Storms, the average intensity drop is 15.0 kts for Cluster I and 11.2 kts for Cluster II. For Typhoons and higher categories, the intensity drop is 30.9 kts and 25.0 kts, respectively. The average translational speed at AP (DP) for Cluster I is 9.4 (12.3) kts, and Cluster II is 10.7 (14.4) kts. Weaker TCs show similar deflection tendency at AP and DP for Cluster I, whereas strong TCs in Cluster II show greater deflection at AP. This is likely influenced by the topography of central-southern Vietnam and its proximity to mainland Indochina. Strong TCs tend to be deflected both at AP and DP for Cluster I, while there is a greater tendency for deflection at AP than DP for Cluster II. These findings improve understanding of TC behavior during their approach and departure in Vietnam and can aid disaster risk reduction and mitigation.</p>

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Dissipation-based clustering of landfalling tropical cyclones in Vietnam: changes in translational speed, intensity, and direction of motion

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月13日

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  • Clint Eldrick R. Petilla,
  • Leia Pauline S. Tonga,
  • Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera,
  • Jun Matsumoto,
  • Thanh Ngo-Duc

摘要

This study analyzes landfalling Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in Vietnam (1979–2020) using k-means clustering. Two clusters were identified based on dissipation locations: Cluster I with 36 cases and Cluster II with 69 cases. The two clusters show distinct environmental characteristics. Differences in sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and vertical wind shear influence whether TCs tend to move northward or southward. The westward extension of the western North Pacific Subtropical High near southern China appears to delay TC recurvature, increasing the likelihood of landfall in Vietnam. The TCs in each cluster were characterized at three key stages: approaching point (AP), landfall point (LP), and departing point (DP). For Tropical Storms and Severe Tropical Storms, the average intensity drop is 15.0 kts for Cluster I and 11.2 kts for Cluster II. For Typhoons and higher categories, the intensity drop is 30.9 kts and 25.0 kts, respectively. The average translational speed at AP (DP) for Cluster I is 9.4 (12.3) kts, and Cluster II is 10.7 (14.4) kts. Weaker TCs show similar deflection tendency at AP and DP for Cluster I, whereas strong TCs in Cluster II show greater deflection at AP. This is likely influenced by the topography of central-southern Vietnam and its proximity to mainland Indochina. Strong TCs tend to be deflected both at AP and DP for Cluster I, while there is a greater tendency for deflection at AP than DP for Cluster II. These findings improve understanding of TC behavior during their approach and departure in Vietnam and can aid disaster risk reduction and mitigation.