Projection of heatwave characteristics over Burkina Faso under the shared socioeconomic pathways Scenarios - SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.
摘要
The continuous rise in temperature has been attributed to increasing greenhouse gas presence in the atmosphere, which in turn impacts heatwave characteristics, especially over the Sahelian region of West Africa. This work aimed to project five heatwave characteristics: Heatwave Amplitude (HWA), Heatwave Duration (HWD), Heatwave Frequency (HWF), Heatwave Magnitude (HWM), and Heatwave Number (HWN) for the near future (2031–2060) and far (2071–2100) future. These projections are based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for the “middle of the road” emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) with a reference period of 1985–2014. The Ensemble Mean (MME) of eleven models from NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset were used and validated against ERA5 using Taylor’s diagram, which demonstrated reasonable performance for the main climate variables, albeit with some biases. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess significant changes and identify a monotonic trend in time series. The results indicate a moderate, insignificant change in all heatwave characteristics in the near future under both climate scenarios. By 2100, Burkina Faso is projected to experience a substantial increase in heatwave characteristics, with more pronounced rises in intensity, frequency, duration, magnitude, and the number of events under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This increasing trend was statistically significant only for HWA (0.01 o C to 0.04 o C/year) and for HWM (-0.08 o C to 0.08 o C/year), while insignificant for the other characteristics. The result from HWF ranged from 2.5 to 3.9 days/year under SSP5-8.5, and from 0.2 to 1 day/year under SSP2-4.5. Projected changes in HWD ranged from 0.2 to 3.5 days, whereas HWN was projected to increase by 0.03 to 0.5 events per year. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and healthcare professionals in anticipating and preparing for future heatwave challenges.