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<p>This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought in Northern Thailand under climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, utilizing the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) derived from statistically downscaled CMIP6 data. Findings indicate a general decrease in drought severity throughout the 21st century, with the most significant reductions projected in the far future under SSP5-8.5. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced drought alleviation in the southwestern and western regions, correlating with forested mountainous areas that exhibit lower potential evapotranspiration. Conversely, lowland agricultural zones are projected to experience increased drought variability. Temporal variability analyses show that while drought frequency and duration are expected to decline, certain areas may witness localized increases. Correlation assessments identify significant associations between drought patterns and large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These insights underscore the importance of incorporating mesoscale climatic effects and climate variability into drought risk assessments. This is crucial for informing targeted adaptation strategies and promoting sustainable water resource management in topographically complex regions of Northern Thailand.</p>

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Meso-scale spatiotemporal analysis of future drought characteristics in Northern Thailand under climate change and variability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月29日

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  • Kongphop Leerach,
  • Niti Iamchuen,
  • Kwansirinapa Thanawong,
  • Piyapatr Busababodhin,
  • Sukrit Kirtsaeng,
  • Sittichai Pimonsree

摘要

This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought in Northern Thailand under climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, utilizing the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) derived from statistically downscaled CMIP6 data. Findings indicate a general decrease in drought severity throughout the 21st century, with the most significant reductions projected in the far future under SSP5-8.5. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced drought alleviation in the southwestern and western regions, correlating with forested mountainous areas that exhibit lower potential evapotranspiration. Conversely, lowland agricultural zones are projected to experience increased drought variability. Temporal variability analyses show that while drought frequency and duration are expected to decline, certain areas may witness localized increases. Correlation assessments identify significant associations between drought patterns and large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These insights underscore the importance of incorporating mesoscale climatic effects and climate variability into drought risk assessments. This is crucial for informing targeted adaptation strategies and promoting sustainable water resource management in topographically complex regions of Northern Thailand.