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<p>Evaluation of the future water supply-demand stability under changing climatic scenarios is quintessential for sustainable water resource management. The current study endeavours to project the water availability and its implications for Rice farming in the Jhelum basin over the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Outputs from six climate models were bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble projections were developed to reduce the uncertainty by employing the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. Jhelum basin is projected to get progressively warmer in the future, with a maximum increase of ∼ 4 ºC during the end century period. The precipitation shows a decrease by varying amounts compared to the baseline during the different spans of the 21st century. The future water availability was projected using the SWAT hydrological model forced with climatic projections. The streamflow projections show a 27–38% decrease under RCP4.5 and a 24–47% under RCP8.5. The CROPWAT model was used for the Rice crop to assess the agricultural water demand. The changing climatic regimes will increase the irrigation water requirement for rice in the basin by a maximum of 370–712 cubic meters/hectare towards the end century. The appraisal of the demand-supply balance for the current area under Rice farming reveals that sufficient water would be available throughout the century on an annual scale. However, for the current area under Rice, water deficits amounting to a maximum of 60% during the growing season are projected towards the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5. The study calls for changing the cropping patterns to less water-demanding crops and the development of the reservoirs in the basin to mitigate the climate change-induced disruption in seasonal water supply and ensuring sustainable water resource management.</p>

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Appraisal of future irrigation water supply-demand balance under climate change scenarios in a Himalayan basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月4日

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  • Shafkat Ahsan,
  • M. Sultan Bhat,
  • Akhtar Alam,
  • Hilal Ahmad Shiekh,
  • Mohd Saleem Wani

摘要

Evaluation of the future water supply-demand stability under changing climatic scenarios is quintessential for sustainable water resource management. The current study endeavours to project the water availability and its implications for Rice farming in the Jhelum basin over the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Outputs from six climate models were bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble projections were developed to reduce the uncertainty by employing the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. Jhelum basin is projected to get progressively warmer in the future, with a maximum increase of ∼ 4 ºC during the end century period. The precipitation shows a decrease by varying amounts compared to the baseline during the different spans of the 21st century. The future water availability was projected using the SWAT hydrological model forced with climatic projections. The streamflow projections show a 27–38% decrease under RCP4.5 and a 24–47% under RCP8.5. The CROPWAT model was used for the Rice crop to assess the agricultural water demand. The changing climatic regimes will increase the irrigation water requirement for rice in the basin by a maximum of 370–712 cubic meters/hectare towards the end century. The appraisal of the demand-supply balance for the current area under Rice farming reveals that sufficient water would be available throughout the century on an annual scale. However, for the current area under Rice, water deficits amounting to a maximum of 60% during the growing season are projected towards the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5. The study calls for changing the cropping patterns to less water-demanding crops and the development of the reservoirs in the basin to mitigate the climate change-induced disruption in seasonal water supply and ensuring sustainable water resource management.