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<p>Climate change influences various rainfall characteristics, which are the key inputs in estimating the rainfall erosivity factor (R Factor). Consequentially, changes in climate directly impact rainfall erosivity, potentially altering the soil erosion threat. Predicting soil erosion in a changing climate becomes critical, particularly considering the recurrent flash flood events in Guwahati City. The city’s major water bodies are shrinking significantly, both horizontally and vertically, which reduces their water-carrying capacity and intensifying flood risks. This study assesses the effect of changing climate on the R factor over Pamohi watershed, the principal watershed of the largest natural storage reservoir for Guwahati city’s drainage. This study utilized bias-corrected precipitation data from 13 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) GCMs (Global Circulation Models) and selected five top-performing models. The R factor was computed using the ensemble of these five GCMs for three future periods: near future (2015–2040), mid future (2041–2070), and far future (2071–2100), under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Daily rainfall was disaggregated into hourly data to apply the standard R factor estimation method from Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) handbook for both historical and future time periods. The projected percentage changes in the R Factor under SSP 245 are 4.81%, 17.77%, and 27.22% for the three future periods, respectively. Under SSP 585, the changes are 8.20%, 20.64%, and a significant 84.07%. The findings of this study highlight a critical concern for soil erosion in the city, potentially exacerbating its flash flood risk.</p>

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Climate change impact on rainfall erosivity factor using disaggregation model under CMIP6 shared socio-economic pathways

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月21日

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  • Tapasranjan Das,
  • Arup Kumar Sarma

摘要

Climate change influences various rainfall characteristics, which are the key inputs in estimating the rainfall erosivity factor (R Factor). Consequentially, changes in climate directly impact rainfall erosivity, potentially altering the soil erosion threat. Predicting soil erosion in a changing climate becomes critical, particularly considering the recurrent flash flood events in Guwahati City. The city’s major water bodies are shrinking significantly, both horizontally and vertically, which reduces their water-carrying capacity and intensifying flood risks. This study assesses the effect of changing climate on the R factor over Pamohi watershed, the principal watershed of the largest natural storage reservoir for Guwahati city’s drainage. This study utilized bias-corrected precipitation data from 13 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) GCMs (Global Circulation Models) and selected five top-performing models. The R factor was computed using the ensemble of these five GCMs for three future periods: near future (2015–2040), mid future (2041–2070), and far future (2071–2100), under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Daily rainfall was disaggregated into hourly data to apply the standard R factor estimation method from Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) handbook for both historical and future time periods. The projected percentage changes in the R Factor under SSP 245 are 4.81%, 17.77%, and 27.22% for the three future periods, respectively. Under SSP 585, the changes are 8.20%, 20.64%, and a significant 84.07%. The findings of this study highlight a critical concern for soil erosion in the city, potentially exacerbating its flash flood risk.