<p>Wheat is one of the most important crops globally. It also plays a pivotal role in ensuring food security in China. The production of wheat is highly sensitive to regional weather conditions, which could be further influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities all over the globe through atmospheric teleconnections. This research employed statistical methods to evaluate the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on winter wheat yield and compared it with the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results indicate that from January to March of the same year, the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) is typically associated with a decline in winter wheat yields in the southern North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Conversely, during the spring season, the positive phase of the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) is significantly correlated with an increase in winter wheat yields in these regions. Further analysis reveals that Indian Ocean SST variabilities primarily affect winter wheat yields by regulating precipitation and solar radiation. Moreover, we find that the significant impacts of IOBM and SIOD on winter wheat may surpass those of ENSO. These findings highlight the critical role of SST variabilities in determining winter wheat yields, elucidating its underlying mechanisms, and providing valuable scientific evidence to support food security efforts for policymakers and farmers.</p>

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Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on winter wheat yields in China

  • Hui Ren,
  • Xiufen Li,
  • Pengkun Liu,
  • Yi Zhou,
  • Tianyi Zhang,
  • Xichen Li

摘要

Wheat is one of the most important crops globally. It also plays a pivotal role in ensuring food security in China. The production of wheat is highly sensitive to regional weather conditions, which could be further influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities all over the globe through atmospheric teleconnections. This research employed statistical methods to evaluate the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on winter wheat yield and compared it with the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results indicate that from January to March of the same year, the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) is typically associated with a decline in winter wheat yields in the southern North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Conversely, during the spring season, the positive phase of the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) is significantly correlated with an increase in winter wheat yields in these regions. Further analysis reveals that Indian Ocean SST variabilities primarily affect winter wheat yields by regulating precipitation and solar radiation. Moreover, we find that the significant impacts of IOBM and SIOD on winter wheat may surpass those of ENSO. These findings highlight the critical role of SST variabilities in determining winter wheat yields, elucidating its underlying mechanisms, and providing valuable scientific evidence to support food security efforts for policymakers and farmers.