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<p>Understanding the impact of compound extreme events on rice yields is crucial for developing resilient agricultural strategies in the face of climate change. This study examines how three compound extreme events—coincidental heatwave and drought (CE1), sequential heatwave and extreme precipitation (CE2), and sequential heatwave and drought (CE3)—and two individual extreme events—heatwaves (IE1) and extreme precipitation (IE2)—influence future rice productivity by integrating bias-corrected climate projections (SSP-245, SSP-370, and SSP-585) into the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model. Results indicate a minimum 50% increase in the duration of selected extreme events, substantially heightening rice crop vulnerability across different emission scenarios. Under rainfed conditions with a fixed atmospheric CO₂ concentration, rice yields exhibit substantial declines, underscoring the risk of climate-induced crop failure. Conversely, scenarios incorporating rising CO₂ levels demonstrate improved yields, emphasizing the potential mitigating effects of CO₂ fertilization. The Maximum Leaf Area Index (MLAI) consistently declines in response to extreme weather events, reinforcing the intricate link between climate variability and crop performance. By the end of the century, projected median yield reductions range from 23.16 to 50.25% under rainfed conditions with a fixed CO₂ concentration and from 1.17 to 39.81% under irrigated conditions with increasing CO₂ levels. These findings highlight the critical role of irrigation and atmospheric CO₂ dynamics in shaping future rice yields. The study further identifies key thresholds for extreme event durations, offering valuable insights for policymakers and agricultural planners to enhance climate adaptation strategies and safeguard rice production against evolving climate risks.</p>

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Assessing climate change impacts on rice yield under compound extreme events using DSSAT-CERES-Rice

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月9日

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  • Kandula Srikanth,
  • N. V. Umamahesh

摘要

Understanding the impact of compound extreme events on rice yields is crucial for developing resilient agricultural strategies in the face of climate change. This study examines how three compound extreme events—coincidental heatwave and drought (CE1), sequential heatwave and extreme precipitation (CE2), and sequential heatwave and drought (CE3)—and two individual extreme events—heatwaves (IE1) and extreme precipitation (IE2)—influence future rice productivity by integrating bias-corrected climate projections (SSP-245, SSP-370, and SSP-585) into the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model. Results indicate a minimum 50% increase in the duration of selected extreme events, substantially heightening rice crop vulnerability across different emission scenarios. Under rainfed conditions with a fixed atmospheric CO₂ concentration, rice yields exhibit substantial declines, underscoring the risk of climate-induced crop failure. Conversely, scenarios incorporating rising CO₂ levels demonstrate improved yields, emphasizing the potential mitigating effects of CO₂ fertilization. The Maximum Leaf Area Index (MLAI) consistently declines in response to extreme weather events, reinforcing the intricate link between climate variability and crop performance. By the end of the century, projected median yield reductions range from 23.16 to 50.25% under rainfed conditions with a fixed CO₂ concentration and from 1.17 to 39.81% under irrigated conditions with increasing CO₂ levels. These findings highlight the critical role of irrigation and atmospheric CO₂ dynamics in shaping future rice yields. The study further identifies key thresholds for extreme event durations, offering valuable insights for policymakers and agricultural planners to enhance climate adaptation strategies and safeguard rice production against evolving climate risks.