Scholarlink

<p>The formulation of an effective and sustainable water resources management for Bintan Island requires future rainfall data, considering that freshwater availability on the island is highly dependent on rainfall. This study examines future meteorological drought changes using historical rainfall data (1981–2021) from the Kijangstation and CHIRPS as well as near future rainfall projection (2006–2045) from four CORDEX-SEA projection models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The drought conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index at 3-month and 6-month scales (SPI-3 and SPI-6). To improve spatial resolution, the CORDEX-SEA data (25&#xa0;km × 25&#xa0;km) were downscaled to 5&#xa0;km × 5&#xa0;km using quantile mapping bias correction, with corrected CHIRPS data as the observational reference. The corrected CORDEX-SEA projects a decrease in annual rainfall by 17% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Seasonal analysis shows a decrease in rainfall of 11.8% (16.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) during DJF and 21.7% (20.2%) under RCP 4.5(RCP 8.5) during JJA, indicating an increased risk of drought. SPI-3 and SPI-6 analyses show significant increases in the longest drought duration, average drought duration, and drought severity across Bintan Island in the near future. The average, maximum drought intensity, and its frequency are projected to decrease slightly though several residential areas will become drier. The study provides recommendations for efficient and sustainable water use. The downscaling approach used in this study improves the spatial resolution of climate model outputs for future water availability estimation and water resource planning in other small islands.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Projected future spatio temporal meteorological drought in Bintan Island, Indonesia, based on CORDEX-SEA climate models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月9日

查看全文
  • Ida Narulita,
  • Dwita Sutjiningsih,
  • Eko Kusratmoko,
  • Muhamad Rahman Djuwansah,
  • Faiz R. Fajary,
  • Widya Ningrum

摘要

The formulation of an effective and sustainable water resources management for Bintan Island requires future rainfall data, considering that freshwater availability on the island is highly dependent on rainfall. This study examines future meteorological drought changes using historical rainfall data (1981–2021) from the Kijangstation and CHIRPS as well as near future rainfall projection (2006–2045) from four CORDEX-SEA projection models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The drought conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index at 3-month and 6-month scales (SPI-3 and SPI-6). To improve spatial resolution, the CORDEX-SEA data (25 km × 25 km) were downscaled to 5 km × 5 km using quantile mapping bias correction, with corrected CHIRPS data as the observational reference. The corrected CORDEX-SEA projects a decrease in annual rainfall by 17% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Seasonal analysis shows a decrease in rainfall of 11.8% (16.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) during DJF and 21.7% (20.2%) under RCP 4.5(RCP 8.5) during JJA, indicating an increased risk of drought. SPI-3 and SPI-6 analyses show significant increases in the longest drought duration, average drought duration, and drought severity across Bintan Island in the near future. The average, maximum drought intensity, and its frequency are projected to decrease slightly though several residential areas will become drier. The study provides recommendations for efficient and sustainable water use. The downscaling approach used in this study improves the spatial resolution of climate model outputs for future water availability estimation and water resource planning in other small islands.