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<p>The global risk of Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHEs) is rising due to warming levels, leading to severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem stability. Central India, especially Madhya Pradesh (MP), is increasingly affected by simultaneous drought and heat extremes, intensifying stress on local water resources, agriculture, and communities. This study investigates CDHEs in MP using TerraClimate data from 1958 to 2022 to analyze rainfall and temperature patterns through joint probability distribution functions, focusing on shifts before and after 1990. This historical baseline highlights trends and regional hotspots influenced by climate change. Results indicate significant post-1990 changes, with rising temperatures across seasons and a marked decline in monsoon rainfall in northern and eastern MP, heightening drought risks. CDHE frequency and severity have increased all across the seasons, particularly in the post-monsoon season, identifying northern (i.e., Bhind, Morena, Gwalior) and eastern (i.e., Sidhi, Shahdol, Satna) MP districts as CDHE hotspots. Compound event probability, combined with LMFDH (Likelihood Multiplication Factor for Dry and Hot Events) values, further reveals a growing interdependence between drought and heat extremes in these areas. The study underscores the urgent need for adaptation strategies, including Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), climate-resilient agricultural practices, early warning systems, and diversified livelihoods, to mitigate CDHE risks. These strategies are essential for building resilience in MP’s climate-sensitive regions, especially in high-risk districts facing compounded drought and heat impacts.</p>

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Compound dry and hot events in Madhya Pradesh: temporal shifts, regional hotspots, and adaptation strategies

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月27日

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  • Chaitanya Raj,
  • Somil Swarnkar,
  • Vikas Poonia,
  • Vaishnavi Sahu

摘要

The global risk of Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHEs) is rising due to warming levels, leading to severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem stability. Central India, especially Madhya Pradesh (MP), is increasingly affected by simultaneous drought and heat extremes, intensifying stress on local water resources, agriculture, and communities. This study investigates CDHEs in MP using TerraClimate data from 1958 to 2022 to analyze rainfall and temperature patterns through joint probability distribution functions, focusing on shifts before and after 1990. This historical baseline highlights trends and regional hotspots influenced by climate change. Results indicate significant post-1990 changes, with rising temperatures across seasons and a marked decline in monsoon rainfall in northern and eastern MP, heightening drought risks. CDHE frequency and severity have increased all across the seasons, particularly in the post-monsoon season, identifying northern (i.e., Bhind, Morena, Gwalior) and eastern (i.e., Sidhi, Shahdol, Satna) MP districts as CDHE hotspots. Compound event probability, combined with LMFDH (Likelihood Multiplication Factor for Dry and Hot Events) values, further reveals a growing interdependence between drought and heat extremes in these areas. The study underscores the urgent need for adaptation strategies, including Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), climate-resilient agricultural practices, early warning systems, and diversified livelihoods, to mitigate CDHE risks. These strategies are essential for building resilience in MP’s climate-sensitive regions, especially in high-risk districts facing compounded drought and heat impacts.