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<p>Extreme dry and wet periods are expected to occur more frequently in the future under climate change. This affects the effectiveness of reservoir inflows for energy productions at annual and seasonal scale. In this study, we introduced a new metric, the Effective Hydropower Index (<i>EHI</i>), to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of streamflow for hydropower generation and seasonal reservoir storage changes in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under climate change. By applying the HBV hydrological model, we simulated both historical and future streamflow as inflow to the reservoir. Based on this, we calculated the daily hydropower production of GERD following its reservoir operation rules. Finally, we performed the annual and seasonal <i>EHI</i> analyses. Results indicate a decrease in the median values of annual <i>EHI</i> in the future periods, which corresponds to 4.3% less effective of future projected streamflow for hydropower production. Seasonal <i>EHI</i> analysis suggests that more extended dry years are likely to occur. Consequently, future dry season’s energy production will be largely influenced by the available active reservoir storage fed by preceding wet season’s inflows. These influences can be explained by 16% more flood volume to the total annual reservoir inflow and ~ 33% more days per year with low reservoir storages in the future. The newly introduced <i>EHI</i> index is highly relevant, in supporting existing reservoir management strategies under extreme conditions given its practical application. Our study highlights the need to optimize hydropower operations by adapting to more frequent extreme events in the future for maintaining effective energy productions.</p>

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Climate change impact on effective water use for hydropower generation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月15日

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  • Tesfalem Abraham,
  • Yan Liu

摘要

Extreme dry and wet periods are expected to occur more frequently in the future under climate change. This affects the effectiveness of reservoir inflows for energy productions at annual and seasonal scale. In this study, we introduced a new metric, the Effective Hydropower Index (EHI), to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of streamflow for hydropower generation and seasonal reservoir storage changes in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under climate change. By applying the HBV hydrological model, we simulated both historical and future streamflow as inflow to the reservoir. Based on this, we calculated the daily hydropower production of GERD following its reservoir operation rules. Finally, we performed the annual and seasonal EHI analyses. Results indicate a decrease in the median values of annual EHI in the future periods, which corresponds to 4.3% less effective of future projected streamflow for hydropower production. Seasonal EHI analysis suggests that more extended dry years are likely to occur. Consequently, future dry season’s energy production will be largely influenced by the available active reservoir storage fed by preceding wet season’s inflows. These influences can be explained by 16% more flood volume to the total annual reservoir inflow and ~ 33% more days per year with low reservoir storages in the future. The newly introduced EHI index is highly relevant, in supporting existing reservoir management strategies under extreme conditions given its practical application. Our study highlights the need to optimize hydropower operations by adapting to more frequent extreme events in the future for maintaining effective energy productions.