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<p>The Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) exerts substantial impacts on the East Asian climate. While several studies have reported the NCCV formation and characteristics related to the local internal atmospheric variability and extrinsic forcing, limited studies have focused on the roles of Arctic Oscillation (AO) associated with the NCCV variability. This study investigated the modulation of the NCCV in early summer by the preceding winter AO. The results show that the NCCV is positively correlated with the AO, indicating that an enhancing (weakening) preceding winter-AO could lead to increases (decreases) of NCCV activity in early summer. A positive winter-AO leads to a concurrent cold sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic through dynamic and thermodynamic processes. This cooling tendency is essential in sustaining the influence of preceding winter AO in the subsequent early summer. Subsequently, it triggers the wave train from the subpolar North Atlantic via the western Europe-Mediterranean Sea and central China and eventually reaches Northeast China to cause negative height anomalies. This process results in enhancing significant cyclonic anomalies over Northeast China, which creates conducive conditions for the occurrence and maintenance of NCCV activities over there. Moreover, an empirical prediction model was formulated to predict the NCCV variations based on the joint SST and AO indices. The hindcast shows promising prediction skills when AO is incorporated into the model. These results could be useful for decision-makers to take action in dealing with NCCV events in the context of the AO.&#xa0;&#xa0;</p>

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Cross-season influence of the Arctic oscillation on the Northeast China cold vortex during early summer

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月7日

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  • Dickson Mbigi,
  • Ziniu Xiao,
  • Nan Zhang

摘要

The Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) exerts substantial impacts on the East Asian climate. While several studies have reported the NCCV formation and characteristics related to the local internal atmospheric variability and extrinsic forcing, limited studies have focused on the roles of Arctic Oscillation (AO) associated with the NCCV variability. This study investigated the modulation of the NCCV in early summer by the preceding winter AO. The results show that the NCCV is positively correlated with the AO, indicating that an enhancing (weakening) preceding winter-AO could lead to increases (decreases) of NCCV activity in early summer. A positive winter-AO leads to a concurrent cold sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic through dynamic and thermodynamic processes. This cooling tendency is essential in sustaining the influence of preceding winter AO in the subsequent early summer. Subsequently, it triggers the wave train from the subpolar North Atlantic via the western Europe-Mediterranean Sea and central China and eventually reaches Northeast China to cause negative height anomalies. This process results in enhancing significant cyclonic anomalies over Northeast China, which creates conducive conditions for the occurrence and maintenance of NCCV activities over there. Moreover, an empirical prediction model was formulated to predict the NCCV variations based on the joint SST and AO indices. The hindcast shows promising prediction skills when AO is incorporated into the model. These results could be useful for decision-makers to take action in dealing with NCCV events in the context of the AO.