<p>Droughts may severely impact several different sectors, including drinking water availability, agricultural production, and energy supply. Due to climate change (CC), temperature is projected to increase on average, while the temporal distribution of precipitation is estimated to change, i.e. more heavy precipitation events and longer dry periods are likely to occur in Central Europe. In Hungary, which is the target area of this study, drought occurs from time to time, as a natural and CC-induced phenomena. To be prepared for the changes and to make adaptation strategies in time, the quantification of future changes is necessary. For this purpose, the modified Pálfai drought index (PaDI) is calculated for Hungary for the period 1975–2100. In the period 1975–2022, according to the observation-based HuClim dataset, a serious drought occurred in 2022 and heavy droughts in three years (1992, 2003 and 2012) over the Great Hungarian Plain. Future trends were projected using six climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative under three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). According to our results, the difference between the radiative forcing’s change of the different scenarios is smaller in the near future; however, by the end of the 21st century, scenarios play a key role in the projected changes. More specifically, the average spatial fraction of heavy drought by 2081–2100 in the case of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is projected to be 3%, 10% and 17%, respectively, compared to 6% in the 2001–2020 reference period. The most exposed area to heavy drought is the Great Hungarian Plain, especially its southern regions. Mitigation of climate change (e.g. irrigation, shift of sowing time or even shift of crop cultivars) should be the main aim to prevent the increase of frequency and severity of droughts, which may otherwise induce adverse effects on e.g. crop yields and water supply.</p>