Atmospheric circulation during Kentucky heavy and extreme precipitation
摘要
Synoptic-scale circulation plays a crucial role in weather and climate conditions of the midlatitude regions and is important for the identification and development of various air masses, midlatitude cyclogenesis, and fronts responsible for inducing heavy and extreme precipitation (HExP). HExP events have enhanced risks for flash floodings, landslides and mudslides, and prior research has suggested their frequency has widely increased over time in the eastern United States, including in Kentucky. The purpose of this study is to investigate the synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms for HExP events across the Commonwealth of Kentucky and their meteorological characteristics. The research further assesses how both hemispheric and continental teleconnection patterns contribute to the development and evolution of those synoptic patterns as a potential forcing mechanism of observed variations and trends. Ten synoptic weather types (SWTs) were identified where the vast majority were days associated with frontal boundaries initiating precipitation; 64% of days exhibited a stationary front and 21% of days exhibited a cold front, while 15% of days were associated with frontal boundaries, and 8% were associated with mid-latitude storm systems directly over Kentucky. The frequency of the SWTs and the magnitude of precipitation associated with each type exhibited statistically significant trends across Kentucky, aligning spatially with regions exhibiting significant linear trends in annual precipitation over time. Moreover, the seasonal frequencies of the SWTs show a statistically significant correlations to at least one of the teleconnection indices in one of the four seasons, as both the PDO and AO exhibited significant correlations during the Spring and Winter relative to summer and winter for the NAO.