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<p>This study assesses flood risks in the Northern Qinling foothills, a crucial ecological and economic zone in China, using CMIP6 climate models and an innovative multi-model ensemble approach. A game theory-based weighting method was applied to evaluate flood vulnerability under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for 2040–2060 and 2070–2090. The key findings include: (1) A projected 20% increase in flood risk under SSP585 by 2100, highlighting the heightened vulnerability of densely populated and economically active areas. (2) Extreme precipitation indices exhibit significant upward trends, with PRCPTOT increasing by + 22.62&#xa0;mm per decade under SSP585, leading to more frequent and intense flood events. (3) Hazard assessment indicates that Lantian County and Chang’an District are the most flood-prone areas, with high-risk zones expanding significantly by the late 21st century. (4) Vulnerability remains relatively stable over time, as GDP increases offset the effects of declining population, but urban expansion in flood-prone areas intensifies overall risk. (5) Compared to SSP245, the SSP585 scenario shows a 22.68% higher increase in high-risk flood areas by 2090, emphasizing the role of emission reduction in mitigating flood hazards. These findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced flood resilience measures, strategic land-use planning, and adaptive infrastructure to safeguard the ecological and economic stability of the region amidst escalating climate change impacts.</p>

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Assessment of flood risk based on CMIP6 for the Northern foothills of Qinling mountain

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月2日

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  • Adnan Ahmed,
  • HUO Aidi,
  • YANG Luying,
  • ZHAO Zhixin,
  • Saima Q. Memon,
  • Mohamed EL-Sayed Abuarab,
  • Ahmed Elbeltagi

摘要

This study assesses flood risks in the Northern Qinling foothills, a crucial ecological and economic zone in China, using CMIP6 climate models and an innovative multi-model ensemble approach. A game theory-based weighting method was applied to evaluate flood vulnerability under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for 2040–2060 and 2070–2090. The key findings include: (1) A projected 20% increase in flood risk under SSP585 by 2100, highlighting the heightened vulnerability of densely populated and economically active areas. (2) Extreme precipitation indices exhibit significant upward trends, with PRCPTOT increasing by + 22.62 mm per decade under SSP585, leading to more frequent and intense flood events. (3) Hazard assessment indicates that Lantian County and Chang’an District are the most flood-prone areas, with high-risk zones expanding significantly by the late 21st century. (4) Vulnerability remains relatively stable over time, as GDP increases offset the effects of declining population, but urban expansion in flood-prone areas intensifies overall risk. (5) Compared to SSP245, the SSP585 scenario shows a 22.68% higher increase in high-risk flood areas by 2090, emphasizing the role of emission reduction in mitigating flood hazards. These findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced flood resilience measures, strategic land-use planning, and adaptive infrastructure to safeguard the ecological and economic stability of the region amidst escalating climate change impacts.