Severe and extreme climatic drought in Iraq: past and present
摘要
In recent years, the severity of drought has increased globally, and Iraq has been affected by this dangerous phenomenon as well, whether in the past as indicated in the Historical references, or in the present time. Through the results of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for rainfall from (10) weather stations in Iraq, it became clear that the frequency of severe and extreme (SV-EX) drought was few before the 1980s. Still, after the 1980s, there was a noticeable increase in the appearance of (SV-EX) drought at many weather stations. After the area covered by (SV-EX) drought in the season (1950/1951) was (3.1%) of the total area of Iraq, it increased during the season (2021/2022) to (80.4%). The results also showed that the decades (2000’s) & (2010’s) recorded the most significant decrease in rainfall amounts. Where the entire rainfall period decreases between (117) & (7.9) mm. By comparing rainfall normal with rainfall totals during the drought seasons, it was found that the rainfall decrease rate ranged between (46.4%-84.6%). A synoptic analysis of the drought and wet seasons made it clear that there was an apparent decrease in the frequency of the Mediterranean depressions and an increase in the frequency of the Siberian highs during the drought season, while the opposite happens in the wet seasons. As for the upper level of the atmosphere, 500 mb, it has become clear that in drought season, there is a noticeable decrease in the frequency of trough and cut-off low in the upper air. These patterns are fundamental for providing the cold air above, which causes condensation and rain formation.