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<p>This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on flooding and streamflow in Nepal’s Kaligandaki River Basin (KRB) considering the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6) based Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP245 and SSP585. Using a historical baseline (1985–2014) daily hydro-meteorological data, projections for mid-century (2031–2060) and far-century (2061–2090) were derived from top-ranking three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for precipitation and temperature. Results suggest a significant warming trend, with maximum and minimum temperatures projected to rise by up to 3.8&#xa0;°C and 3.9&#xa0;°C, respectively, under SSP585 by 2090. Monsoon precipitation could increase by up to 17.4% by 2090, leading to amplified monsoon flows by 28%–41.5%, with further increases expected during winter and post-monsoon seasons. However, pre-monsoon flows may decline by up to 26.2% under the two climate combinations. The study also shows that the historical 100-year flood of 4,000 m<sup>3</sup>/s could vary between 3,451–8,609 m<sup>3</sup>/s by mid-century, with potential increases to 3,750–8,147 m<sup>3</sup>/s by the end of the century, raising the frequency of&#xa0;the extreme event to a four-year recurrence interval in the worst-case scenario. Additionally, the anticipated widening of the temporal occurrence of annual maxima poses challenges to flood risk management frameworks, threatening infrastructure and agricultural stability. This study underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies to safeguard water resources and food security in mountainous basins facing growing climate risks, with the methodology providing a replicable framework for similar regions.</p>

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Climate change impacts on flood dynamics and seasonal flow variability in central Nepal: the Kaligandaki River Basin case

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月11日

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  • Koshish Raj Maharjan,
  • Utsav Bhattarai,
  • Pawan Kumar Bhattarai,
  • Laxmi Prasad Devkota

摘要

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on flooding and streamflow in Nepal’s Kaligandaki River Basin (KRB) considering the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6) based Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP245 and SSP585. Using a historical baseline (1985–2014) daily hydro-meteorological data, projections for mid-century (2031–2060) and far-century (2061–2090) were derived from top-ranking three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for precipitation and temperature. Results suggest a significant warming trend, with maximum and minimum temperatures projected to rise by up to 3.8 °C and 3.9 °C, respectively, under SSP585 by 2090. Monsoon precipitation could increase by up to 17.4% by 2090, leading to amplified monsoon flows by 28%–41.5%, with further increases expected during winter and post-monsoon seasons. However, pre-monsoon flows may decline by up to 26.2% under the two climate combinations. The study also shows that the historical 100-year flood of 4,000 m3/s could vary between 3,451–8,609 m3/s by mid-century, with potential increases to 3,750–8,147 m3/s by the end of the century, raising the frequency of the extreme event to a four-year recurrence interval in the worst-case scenario. Additionally, the anticipated widening of the temporal occurrence of annual maxima poses challenges to flood risk management frameworks, threatening infrastructure and agricultural stability. This study underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies to safeguard water resources and food security in mountainous basins facing growing climate risks, with the methodology providing a replicable framework for similar regions.