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<p>The substantial reduction in the size of Lake Chad, approaching 90% of its original size in the 1960s, has raised global concerns. This research is designed to identify critical junctures in the time series of annual precipitation data, leading to abrupt shifts in trends across various segments of the Lake Chad River Basin. Annual and seasonal rainfall data spanning forty-one years (1981–2021) were collected from twenty-five monitoring stations, sourced from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website. The time series data were assessed for serial correlation and non-parametric statistical tests, (Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sequential Mann-Kendall (SMK)) at 5% significance level. Results revealed that 28% of the locations exhibited statistically significant inter-annual increases in rainfall, while 20% displayed statistically significant inter-annual decreases. Furthermore, 32% of the locations recorded statistically significant upward trends in inter-seasonal rainfall, while 8% indicated statistically significant declines. The application of the SMK test unveiled that 48% of the locations experienced statistically significant sudden alterations in inter-annual rainfall, with a similar abrupt shift occurring in 40% of the locations for inter-seasonal rainfall. These erratic precipitation patterns are significantly impacting water resources management and this has global implications.</p>

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Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall over Chad River Basin, Nigeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月17日

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  • Blessing Funmbi Sasanya,
  • Sunday Olufemi Adesogan,
  • Akeem Abiodun Ademola

摘要

The substantial reduction in the size of Lake Chad, approaching 90% of its original size in the 1960s, has raised global concerns. This research is designed to identify critical junctures in the time series of annual precipitation data, leading to abrupt shifts in trends across various segments of the Lake Chad River Basin. Annual and seasonal rainfall data spanning forty-one years (1981–2021) were collected from twenty-five monitoring stations, sourced from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website. The time series data were assessed for serial correlation and non-parametric statistical tests, (Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sequential Mann-Kendall (SMK)) at 5% significance level. Results revealed that 28% of the locations exhibited statistically significant inter-annual increases in rainfall, while 20% displayed statistically significant inter-annual decreases. Furthermore, 32% of the locations recorded statistically significant upward trends in inter-seasonal rainfall, while 8% indicated statistically significant declines. The application of the SMK test unveiled that 48% of the locations experienced statistically significant sudden alterations in inter-annual rainfall, with a similar abrupt shift occurring in 40% of the locations for inter-seasonal rainfall. These erratic precipitation patterns are significantly impacting water resources management and this has global implications.