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<p>Understanding the evolving patterns of climate extremes is crucial for planning climate change adaptation and safeguarding vulnerable communities in the Lower Volta Basin, Ghana. This study utilised precipitation, temperature and relative humidity data from CHIRPS and ERA5, as well as 13 CORDEX-Africa model projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, to evaluate past and future trends in selected rainfall and temperature indices for the historic (1991–2020), near future (2026–2045), mid future (2046–2065) and far future (2066–2100) time horizons. The significance of the observed trends was determined using the Modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistic at 95% confidence level and the magnitude of the trends was estimated with Sen’s statistic. The results reveal insignificant trends in historical rainfall extremes, though multi-decadal changes indicate a 20% increase in maximum 5-day rainfall totals over the last two decades, compared to earlier period. Isolated extreme rainfall events have become more frequent post-2000, increasing flood and erosion risks for vulnerable coastal areas. The temperature analyses show significant decline in the frequency of cool days and nights, while warm days and nights have surged, intensifying human thermal stress. The projections suggest an overall increase in maximum 5-day rainfall totals and very heavy rainfall days. The results also show significant increasing (decreasing) trend for warm (cool) nights and warm (cool) days in the near, middle, and far futures. These findings underscore the urgent need for holistic climate adaptation strategies, to protect livelihoods and promote sustainable development under changing climate in the Lower Volta Basin.</p>

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Analysis of spatio-temporal trends in climate extremes in the Lower Volta Basin, Ghana

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月18日

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  • Emmanuel Obuobie,
  • Marian Amoakowaah Osei,
  • Martin Addi,
  • Jacob Agyekum,
  • Bismark Awinbire Akurugu,
  • Prosper Bazaanah,
  • Franz Alex Gaisie-Essilfie,
  • Gabriel Appiah

摘要

Understanding the evolving patterns of climate extremes is crucial for planning climate change adaptation and safeguarding vulnerable communities in the Lower Volta Basin, Ghana. This study utilised precipitation, temperature and relative humidity data from CHIRPS and ERA5, as well as 13 CORDEX-Africa model projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, to evaluate past and future trends in selected rainfall and temperature indices for the historic (1991–2020), near future (2026–2045), mid future (2046–2065) and far future (2066–2100) time horizons. The significance of the observed trends was determined using the Modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistic at 95% confidence level and the magnitude of the trends was estimated with Sen’s statistic. The results reveal insignificant trends in historical rainfall extremes, though multi-decadal changes indicate a 20% increase in maximum 5-day rainfall totals over the last two decades, compared to earlier period. Isolated extreme rainfall events have become more frequent post-2000, increasing flood and erosion risks for vulnerable coastal areas. The temperature analyses show significant decline in the frequency of cool days and nights, while warm days and nights have surged, intensifying human thermal stress. The projections suggest an overall increase in maximum 5-day rainfall totals and very heavy rainfall days. The results also show significant increasing (decreasing) trend for warm (cool) nights and warm (cool) days in the near, middle, and far futures. These findings underscore the urgent need for holistic climate adaptation strategies, to protect livelihoods and promote sustainable development under changing climate in the Lower Volta Basin.