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<p>Litchi (<i>Litchi chinensis</i> Sonn.) is a fruit with important edible and medicinal properties, and its growth process necessitates strict environmental conditions. In this study, we constructed a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model using 226 litchi occurrence data and 12 environmental variables to predict the suitable areas of litchi in China mainland under current scenario and three future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) during different periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080). The results indicated that under the current scenario, the suitable areas for litchi were primarily distributed in Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Yunnan provinces. The suitable levels generally decreased from south to north. Under different climate change scenarios, with the exception of a few periods, the suitable areas would generally expand northward in the subtropical region, with expansion extent were expected to increase with climate forcing intensity. Suitable levels would typically increase in the tropical region, with periods of significant increase occurring earlier under higher climate forcing intensity. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), temperature annual range (Bio7), precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were identified as the key environmental variables affecting litchi distribution. The suitable ranges for Bio1, Bio7, Bio16, and Bio17 were 20.3–28.3℃, 13.4–22.5℃, 791–1622&#xa0;mm and 0–100&#xa0;mm, respectively. Bio1 was identified as the main driving force behind the expansion of suitable areas, while Bio16 was highly representative of the changes in suitable levels. The results of this study have reference value for the systematic planning of future global litchi planting spatial patterns.</p>

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Prediction of the suitable areas of Litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) in China mainland under climate change scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月7日

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  • Wen-xuan Ma,
  • Chao Jiang

摘要

Litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) is a fruit with important edible and medicinal properties, and its growth process necessitates strict environmental conditions. In this study, we constructed a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model using 226 litchi occurrence data and 12 environmental variables to predict the suitable areas of litchi in China mainland under current scenario and three future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) during different periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080). The results indicated that under the current scenario, the suitable areas for litchi were primarily distributed in Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Yunnan provinces. The suitable levels generally decreased from south to north. Under different climate change scenarios, with the exception of a few periods, the suitable areas would generally expand northward in the subtropical region, with expansion extent were expected to increase with climate forcing intensity. Suitable levels would typically increase in the tropical region, with periods of significant increase occurring earlier under higher climate forcing intensity. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), temperature annual range (Bio7), precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were identified as the key environmental variables affecting litchi distribution. The suitable ranges for Bio1, Bio7, Bio16, and Bio17 were 20.3–28.3℃, 13.4–22.5℃, 791–1622 mm and 0–100 mm, respectively. Bio1 was identified as the main driving force behind the expansion of suitable areas, while Bio16 was highly representative of the changes in suitable levels. The results of this study have reference value for the systematic planning of future global litchi planting spatial patterns.