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<p>Pakistan, ranking 8th globally in climate change vulnerability faces significant challenges, particularly in Balochistan. This drought-prone province, with over 85% of its population in rural areas, heavily depends on agriculture and livestock. The study investigates rainfall and drought patterns in Balochistan from 1980 to 2016, utilizing precipitation data from multiple sources: Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (Aphrodite), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), and rain gauges. We employed spatial mapping to evaluate rainfall patterns and applied multiple drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Decile Index (DI), Precipitation Normalized Index (PNI), and Z-Score Index (ZSI) to assess drought characteristics. The analysis revealed two distinct rainfall patterns: monsoon in the east and westerly disturbances in the west of Balochistan. Notably, we found that different datasets exhibited varying degrees of accuracy compared to rain gauge data: Aphrodite slightly underestimated rainfall, CPC significantly underestimated it, and MSWEP overestimated precipitation levels. A key finding of the study is the identification of severe to moderate droughts in most parts of Balochistan during specific periods: 1988–1989, 1998–2002, 2003–2004, and 2005–2006. This comprehensive assessment of Balochistan's climate patterns and drought occurrences provides crucial insights for water resource management and agricultural planning in this vulnerable region.</p>

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Attributing rainfall and drought variability across climate vulnerable area of Pakistan: Perspective from different satellite and ground-based datasets

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月10日

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  • Mohammad Ilyas Abro,
  • Ehsan Elahi,
  • Murad Ali Khaskheli,
  • Rashid Mustafa Korai,
  • Mahdi Hassan,
  • Asghar Ali Majidano,
  • Bhai Khan Solangi,
  • Faiz Muhammad Khokhar

摘要

Pakistan, ranking 8th globally in climate change vulnerability faces significant challenges, particularly in Balochistan. This drought-prone province, with over 85% of its population in rural areas, heavily depends on agriculture and livestock. The study investigates rainfall and drought patterns in Balochistan from 1980 to 2016, utilizing precipitation data from multiple sources: Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (Aphrodite), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), and rain gauges. We employed spatial mapping to evaluate rainfall patterns and applied multiple drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Decile Index (DI), Precipitation Normalized Index (PNI), and Z-Score Index (ZSI) to assess drought characteristics. The analysis revealed two distinct rainfall patterns: monsoon in the east and westerly disturbances in the west of Balochistan. Notably, we found that different datasets exhibited varying degrees of accuracy compared to rain gauge data: Aphrodite slightly underestimated rainfall, CPC significantly underestimated it, and MSWEP overestimated precipitation levels. A key finding of the study is the identification of severe to moderate droughts in most parts of Balochistan during specific periods: 1988–1989, 1998–2002, 2003–2004, and 2005–2006. This comprehensive assessment of Balochistan's climate patterns and drought occurrences provides crucial insights for water resource management and agricultural planning in this vulnerable region.