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<p>To respond to climate change risks, it is essential to investigate possible changes in environments conducive to high surface ozone episodes (ECHO) over the Korean Peninsula (KP). In this study, we develop the Korea Ozone Weather Index (KOWI) and confirm through comparisons with observation that the KOWI index effectively represents ECHO in the KP. Based on this, we investigate the probable changes in ECHO and contributing factors under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) future scenarios, comparing those assuming no additional mitigation efforts (SSP3-7.0) to those with implemented a policy of air quality controls (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) and both policies of air quality controls and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission reduction (SSP1-2.6). The annual occurrence of ECHO during May to September season in the KP from CMIP6 ensemble is 24.1 days in 1995–2014 period and is expected to be 103.8 days, 112.8 days, and 76.2 days in 2081–2099 period under SSP3-7.0, SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF, and SSP1-2.6, respectively. This results indicate that air quality controls can increase the occurrence of ECHO, whereas GHGs emission reduction policies can suppress its occurrence. Comparing the future changes of contributing factors under the SSP scenarios reflecting climate policies, we find that air quality controls are correlated with an increase in the maximum temperature and downward solar radiation. This analysis indicates that air quality controls may result in more sunlight reaching the surface. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the implementation of GHGs reduction policy is linked to a mitigation of the increasing trend in maximum temperature. Meanwhile, the relative humidity and wind speed are projected to make relatively small contributions to ECHO changes.</p>

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A novel approach to project future changes in meteorological factors affecting severe surface ozone over the Korean Peninsula under SSP scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月13日

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  • Do-Hyun Kim,
  • Hyun Min Sung,
  • Sungbo Shim,
  • Jisun Kim,
  • Min-Ah Sun,
  • Jae-Hee Lee,
  • Young-Hwa Byun,
  • Chu-Yong Chung

摘要

To respond to climate change risks, it is essential to investigate possible changes in environments conducive to high surface ozone episodes (ECHO) over the Korean Peninsula (KP). In this study, we develop the Korea Ozone Weather Index (KOWI) and confirm through comparisons with observation that the KOWI index effectively represents ECHO in the KP. Based on this, we investigate the probable changes in ECHO and contributing factors under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) future scenarios, comparing those assuming no additional mitigation efforts (SSP3-7.0) to those with implemented a policy of air quality controls (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) and both policies of air quality controls and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission reduction (SSP1-2.6). The annual occurrence of ECHO during May to September season in the KP from CMIP6 ensemble is 24.1 days in 1995–2014 period and is expected to be 103.8 days, 112.8 days, and 76.2 days in 2081–2099 period under SSP3-7.0, SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF, and SSP1-2.6, respectively. This results indicate that air quality controls can increase the occurrence of ECHO, whereas GHGs emission reduction policies can suppress its occurrence. Comparing the future changes of contributing factors under the SSP scenarios reflecting climate policies, we find that air quality controls are correlated with an increase in the maximum temperature and downward solar radiation. This analysis indicates that air quality controls may result in more sunlight reaching the surface. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the implementation of GHGs reduction policy is linked to a mitigation of the increasing trend in maximum temperature. Meanwhile, the relative humidity and wind speed are projected to make relatively small contributions to ECHO changes.