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<p>Seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia is influenced by sea surface temperature variations, which significantly affect the largest contributor of rainfall to the country. This study investigates the link between sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean and Kiremt (June to September) rainfall in Ethiopia from 1991 to 2024 using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data. Trend and its magnitude are detected at seasonal and annual timescales using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The teleconnection between Atlantic SST and Ethiopian rainfall is determined using the Empirical Orthogonal Function/Principal Component Analysis (EOF/PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition techniques (SVD). The analysis identified rainfall extremes in recent years, with wet years occurring in 2009, 2012, and 2019 alongside dry years in 2002, 2009, and 2015. The trend results indicated a significant rise of both rainfall and SST during the study period, at a significance level of α = 0.05. The trends of rainfall exhibit spatial heterogeneity, characterized by the northern and northwestern parts experiencing a rising trend, whereas the central and southeastern parts experience a decline. The EOF/PCA analysis identifies four drivers of seasonal variability with a collective explained variance of 65.4%. The first EOF/PC accounts for 34.7% of the variance. Likewise, the SVD indicated 68.0% of coupled variations. The results reveal a strong teleconnection between Atlantic SST fluctuations accompanied by excess and deficit Kiremt rainfall in Ethiopia. This study is expected to contribute to a broader understanding of oceanic drivers of regional climate variability and their remote impacts on rainfall patterns.</p>

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Understanding the teleconnections between atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures and Ethiopian summer (Kiremt) rainfall variability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月3日

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  • Tewelde Berihu,
  • Tesfay Mekonnen Weldegerima

摘要

Seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia is influenced by sea surface temperature variations, which significantly affect the largest contributor of rainfall to the country. This study investigates the link between sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean and Kiremt (June to September) rainfall in Ethiopia from 1991 to 2024 using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data. Trend and its magnitude are detected at seasonal and annual timescales using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The teleconnection between Atlantic SST and Ethiopian rainfall is determined using the Empirical Orthogonal Function/Principal Component Analysis (EOF/PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition techniques (SVD). The analysis identified rainfall extremes in recent years, with wet years occurring in 2009, 2012, and 2019 alongside dry years in 2002, 2009, and 2015. The trend results indicated a significant rise of both rainfall and SST during the study period, at a significance level of α = 0.05. The trends of rainfall exhibit spatial heterogeneity, characterized by the northern and northwestern parts experiencing a rising trend, whereas the central and southeastern parts experience a decline. The EOF/PCA analysis identifies four drivers of seasonal variability with a collective explained variance of 65.4%. The first EOF/PC accounts for 34.7% of the variance. Likewise, the SVD indicated 68.0% of coupled variations. The results reveal a strong teleconnection between Atlantic SST fluctuations accompanied by excess and deficit Kiremt rainfall in Ethiopia. This study is expected to contribute to a broader understanding of oceanic drivers of regional climate variability and their remote impacts on rainfall patterns.