<p>To address the challenge of ground vibration velocity control in supercritical CO₂ phase-transition (SCPT) blasting technology, this study established a vibration velocity prediction system integrating thin-walled cylindrical theory and short-column charge principles. By developing an analytical model for pulsed pressure that accounts for fracturing tube geometric parameters and combining it with stress wave propagation theory, a closed-form solution for the peak particle vibration velocity (PPV) at the surface was derived. Experimental validation demonstrated that the theoretical pulsed pressure values based on the Von-Mises strength criterion exhibited an error ratio of 1.049 compared to measured data, confirming the model’s engineering applicability. Through multivariate regression analysis, a vibration velocity attenuation coefficient of <i>β</i> = 2631.07 was obtained, and the constructed vibration velocity prediction equation accurately characterizes the coupling effects of seismic source parameters and rock mass properties. Sensitivity analysis revealed that reducing the fracturing tube’s inner diameter, increasing its wall thickness, and enhancing its tensile strength all result in near-linear increases in blasting pressure and vibration velocity, while increasing rock mass density, Poisson’s ratio, and elastic modulus reduces vibration velocity. When defining a 5-m safety critical range, the fracturing tube length must be less than 1.8 m, the inner diameter can be freely selected, the wall thickness must be below 3.5 mm, and the tensile strength must not exceed 450 MPa. These findings provide theoretical guidance for controlling ground vibrations induced by supercritical CO₂ blasting.</p>