The valuation approach to real learning options under fuzzy-stochastic uncertainty
摘要
Asset and company valuation is a crucial topic in financial management, and the importance of the information gathering (the learning aspect) is increasing due to an innovation acceleration in the economy. The real learning options are sequential options with a usual market uncertainty and technical uncertainty, allowing for the modelling of the learning process. Low frequency data, subjectivity and the uncertainty of prediction in some cases mean that data can be determined only vaguely, expressed by a fuzzy-random distribution and fuzzy sets. This paper’s objective is to develop and verify the complete fuzzy-stochastic real learning option (CFSRLO) valuation model in a discrete time. Input data are given both the fuzzy-random distribution (the underlying cash-flow development, technical probability) and the fuzzy numbers (the continuum value, risk-free rate, risk rate, switching cost). The T-numbers, the Decomposition (resolution) principle, and