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<p>Natural gas, as a widely used clean energy source in the industrial sector, its production has always been a concerned indicator for enterprises and governments. In order to more accurately predict China’s natural gas production, the article conducts regression analysis and time series analysis on the observed values based on uncertainty theory.&#xa0;Firstly, linear and nonlinear regression models for natural gas production are established, respectively.&#xa0;By comparing the two models, it is found that the data exhibits nonlinearity.&#xa0;Therefore, only the uncertain nonlinear time series model for China’s natural gas production data is established. The results of uncertain hypothesis tests indicate that all three models can be used to fit the data, and the randomness tests are used to explain why uncertain statistics is employed. Furthermore, all three models predict China’s natural gas production in 2025, and the forecast interval obtained from the uncertain nonlinear time series model is the most accurate.</p>

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The prediction of China’s natural gas production based on uncertain statistics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月20日

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  • Hongwei Wang,
  • Xue Liu,
  • Liying Liu

摘要

Natural gas, as a widely used clean energy source in the industrial sector, its production has always been a concerned indicator for enterprises and governments. In order to more accurately predict China’s natural gas production, the article conducts regression analysis and time series analysis on the observed values based on uncertainty theory. Firstly, linear and nonlinear regression models for natural gas production are established, respectively. By comparing the two models, it is found that the data exhibits nonlinearity. Therefore, only the uncertain nonlinear time series model for China’s natural gas production data is established. The results of uncertain hypothesis tests indicate that all three models can be used to fit the data, and the randomness tests are used to explain why uncertain statistics is employed. Furthermore, all three models predict China’s natural gas production in 2025, and the forecast interval obtained from the uncertain nonlinear time series model is the most accurate.