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<p>The COVID-19 pandemic presented an unprecedented challenge to global health systems and financial markets. This study specifically investigates the dynamic interaction between the communication of the UK’s Government, the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic, and stock market trends in three distinct phases of the pandemic: initial outbreak, peak crisis, and vaccination rollout. Using a combination of machine learning techniques, particularly BERT-based sentiment analysis, correlation, and Granger causality analyses, we dissect the relationship between public announcement sentiment, pandemic metrics (cases and deaths), and the returns and prices of the stock markets. Our findings delineate a pattern of market sensitivity to the tone and content of government communications and the severity of the pandemic. The study not only underscores the critical role of government communications in managing expectations during crises, but also illustrates the effects of pandemic developments on the stock market.</p>

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Signals in the storm: the impact of government announcements and COVID-19 developments on financial markets

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月17日

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  • Thamila Madji,
  • Valerio Ficcadenti

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic presented an unprecedented challenge to global health systems and financial markets. This study specifically investigates the dynamic interaction between the communication of the UK’s Government, the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic, and stock market trends in three distinct phases of the pandemic: initial outbreak, peak crisis, and vaccination rollout. Using a combination of machine learning techniques, particularly BERT-based sentiment analysis, correlation, and Granger causality analyses, we dissect the relationship between public announcement sentiment, pandemic metrics (cases and deaths), and the returns and prices of the stock markets. Our findings delineate a pattern of market sensitivity to the tone and content of government communications and the severity of the pandemic. The study not only underscores the critical role of government communications in managing expectations during crises, but also illustrates the effects of pandemic developments on the stock market.