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<p>Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense, increasing biometeorological and public-health risks in urban areas where dense built-up surfaces, limited vegetation, and local humidity patterns modify human heat exposure. This study examines urban heat stress in Lublin (SE Poland), a mid-sized Central European city with a heterogeneous urban structure typical of many cities in the region, and evaluates whether local thermal conditions during heat waves can be reconstructed in data-limited periods using a Parallel Multi-Population Genetic Programming (PMPGP) approach. The analysis combines long-term observations from urban and rural meteorological stations (1975–2024) with detailed intra-urban case studies of the August 2010 and August 2015 heat waves. Air temperature and relative humidity were measured by HOBO® sensors at five sites representing contrasting urban environments (including the Old Town, a central square, high-rise residential estates, and a low-density residential area). For the August 2015 mega-heat wave temperature and relative humidity at four urban sites were reconstructed using PMPGP models calibrated and validated with earlier observations and driven by data from Litewski Square (city centre). Heat stress was assessed using Apparent Temperature (AT). Results showed an urban-rural contrast, especially at night, with more tropical nights and higher minimum temperatures in central Lublin. During heat waves, heat stress was strongest in densely built-up areas, especially the Old Town “urban well” and high-rise districts, while greener sites were cooler. Higher humidity in the outskirts could still increase AT despite cooler air, underscoring humidity’s importance. PMPGP-based reconstruction supports heat-risk assessment and climate adaptation planning in cities. </p>

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Urban heat stress during heat waves in a mid-sized Central European city (Lublin, Poland): observations and PMPGP-based reconstruction

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月23日

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  • Agnieszka Krzyżewska,
  • Sachindra Dhanapala Arachchige,
  • Mateusz Dobek,
  • Sylwester Wereski

摘要

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense, increasing biometeorological and public-health risks in urban areas where dense built-up surfaces, limited vegetation, and local humidity patterns modify human heat exposure. This study examines urban heat stress in Lublin (SE Poland), a mid-sized Central European city with a heterogeneous urban structure typical of many cities in the region, and evaluates whether local thermal conditions during heat waves can be reconstructed in data-limited periods using a Parallel Multi-Population Genetic Programming (PMPGP) approach. The analysis combines long-term observations from urban and rural meteorological stations (1975–2024) with detailed intra-urban case studies of the August 2010 and August 2015 heat waves. Air temperature and relative humidity were measured by HOBO® sensors at five sites representing contrasting urban environments (including the Old Town, a central square, high-rise residential estates, and a low-density residential area). For the August 2015 mega-heat wave temperature and relative humidity at four urban sites were reconstructed using PMPGP models calibrated and validated with earlier observations and driven by data from Litewski Square (city centre). Heat stress was assessed using Apparent Temperature (AT). Results showed an urban-rural contrast, especially at night, with more tropical nights and higher minimum temperatures in central Lublin. During heat waves, heat stress was strongest in densely built-up areas, especially the Old Town “urban well” and high-rise districts, while greener sites were cooler. Higher humidity in the outskirts could still increase AT despite cooler air, underscoring humidity’s importance. PMPGP-based reconstruction supports heat-risk assessment and climate adaptation planning in cities.