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<p>The global infertility crisis and the escalating challenges of climate change are becoming increasingly and inextricably intertwined. However, a fundamental question remains unresolved: do the observed reproductive risks primarily stem from the cumulative impact of sustained temperature increases, or from the growing frequency and intensity of short-term temperature fluctuations? Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study for 1990–2019, we examined associations between mean temperature (MT), short-term temperature variability, represented by diurnal temperature range, temperature change between consecutive days, and temperature variability over lag days 0–1, and long-term temperature fluctuation, with infertility prevalence. Generalized additive models with random intercepts for country and year were employed to characterize non-linear exposure-response relationships. Subgroup analyses evaluated potential effect modification by sex, age, infertility type, and underlying etiology, while complementary analytical approaches explored temporal trends in climate-infertility associations. Results indicate that both elevated mean temperatures (MT) and short-term temperature variability are associated with increased infertility prevalence, with MT showing the largest effect per unit increase in terms of additional cases. This suggests that sustained warming may pose a greater population health burden than short-term fluctuations. Each interquartile range increase in MT was associated with an additional 552.8 infertility cases per 100,000 population (95% CI: 362.5-760.3). These relationships exhibited non-linear exposure-response patterns. Furthermore, temperature-associated reproductive risks were found to be progressively worsening over time. Specific subgroups, particularly women, individuals over 35, those with secondary infertility, and cases associated with chronic non-communicable diseases, showed heightened vulnerability to these climate-related health impacts. These findings emphasize the need for reproductive health-centered climate adaptation and for the integration of environmental resilience into reproductive care by health systems.</p>

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Climate change and infertility: global evidence on temperature-related reproductive risks and demographic vulnerability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月25日

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  • Yang Tao,
  • Jinjie Wu,
  • Rubing Pan

摘要

The global infertility crisis and the escalating challenges of climate change are becoming increasingly and inextricably intertwined. However, a fundamental question remains unresolved: do the observed reproductive risks primarily stem from the cumulative impact of sustained temperature increases, or from the growing frequency and intensity of short-term temperature fluctuations? Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study for 1990–2019, we examined associations between mean temperature (MT), short-term temperature variability, represented by diurnal temperature range, temperature change between consecutive days, and temperature variability over lag days 0–1, and long-term temperature fluctuation, with infertility prevalence. Generalized additive models with random intercepts for country and year were employed to characterize non-linear exposure-response relationships. Subgroup analyses evaluated potential effect modification by sex, age, infertility type, and underlying etiology, while complementary analytical approaches explored temporal trends in climate-infertility associations. Results indicate that both elevated mean temperatures (MT) and short-term temperature variability are associated with increased infertility prevalence, with MT showing the largest effect per unit increase in terms of additional cases. This suggests that sustained warming may pose a greater population health burden than short-term fluctuations. Each interquartile range increase in MT was associated with an additional 552.8 infertility cases per 100,000 population (95% CI: 362.5-760.3). These relationships exhibited non-linear exposure-response patterns. Furthermore, temperature-associated reproductive risks were found to be progressively worsening over time. Specific subgroups, particularly women, individuals over 35, those with secondary infertility, and cases associated with chronic non-communicable diseases, showed heightened vulnerability to these climate-related health impacts. These findings emphasize the need for reproductive health-centered climate adaptation and for the integration of environmental resilience into reproductive care by health systems.