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<p> This study aimed to assess the trend of reported human coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever or VF) cases and their association with weather and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in El Paso, Texas, USA, in 2013 - 2022. Data on VF incidence was taken from the City of El Paso Notifiable Conditions Reports. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Weather Service, and particulate matter (PM) data was obtained from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality continuous air monitoring stations. Advanced statistical methods, including Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), were employed to assess the impact of weather and air quality factors on VF incidence. During the study decade, 246 VF cases were recorded. A significant upward trend in incidence rates was evident. Cross-correlation analysis showed VF incidence was positively correlated with average PM<sub>2.5</sub> (r=0.16), maximum PM<sub>2.5</sub> (r=0.08), average PM<sub>10</sub> (r=0.08), and maximum PM<sub>10</sub> (r=0.20) from the preceding month. Dust hours were negatively associated with VF incidence of the same month (r= –0.23), while VF incidence had positive associations with average wind speed (r=0.10) and peak wind gust (r=0.13) lagged 4-months. GAM models suggest that a higher VF incidence will be expected when one-month prior maximum temperature exceeds 102 °F (about 38.9 °C), four-month prior peak wind gusts exceed about 28.6 m/s (64 mph), or one-month prior max PM<sub>10</sub> exceeds about 2000 µg/m<sup>3</sup>. Such extreme weather conditions occur in El Paso roughly annually to triennially and suggest intense dust events caused by convection on otherwise non-dusty days may be related to the incidence of VF. </p>

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The ascending trend of valley fever in El Paso, Texas and its association with regional meteorological and dust factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月24日

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  • Gabriel Ibarra-Mejia,
  • Narges Khanjani,
  • Maryam Dastoorpour,
  • Estrella Herrera-Molina,
  • Karin Ardon-Dryer,
  • Soyoung Jeon,
  • Thomas E. Gill

摘要

This study aimed to assess the trend of reported human coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever or VF) cases and their association with weather and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in El Paso, Texas, USA, in 2013 - 2022. Data on VF incidence was taken from the City of El Paso Notifiable Conditions Reports. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Weather Service, and particulate matter (PM) data was obtained from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality continuous air monitoring stations. Advanced statistical methods, including Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), were employed to assess the impact of weather and air quality factors on VF incidence. During the study decade, 246 VF cases were recorded. A significant upward trend in incidence rates was evident. Cross-correlation analysis showed VF incidence was positively correlated with average PM2.5 (r=0.16), maximum PM2.5 (r=0.08), average PM10 (r=0.08), and maximum PM10 (r=0.20) from the preceding month. Dust hours were negatively associated with VF incidence of the same month (r= –0.23), while VF incidence had positive associations with average wind speed (r=0.10) and peak wind gust (r=0.13) lagged 4-months. GAM models suggest that a higher VF incidence will be expected when one-month prior maximum temperature exceeds 102 °F (about 38.9 °C), four-month prior peak wind gusts exceed about 28.6 m/s (64 mph), or one-month prior max PM10 exceeds about 2000 µg/m3. Such extreme weather conditions occur in El Paso roughly annually to triennially and suggest intense dust events caused by convection on otherwise non-dusty days may be related to the incidence of VF.