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<p>Pomegranate (<i>Punica granatum</i> L.) is a fruit crop of major agronomic, socio-economic, and ecological importance in Morocco, where it plays a key role in sustainable agriculture, particularly in semi-arid and mountainous regions. In the context of climate change and the upward migration of climate-sensitive species, identifying resilient crops such as pomegranate is essential for anticipating future shifts in agricultural suitability. Despite its growing importance, the potential national-scale distribution of <i>P. granatum</i> under current and future climatic conditions remains insufficiently documented. This study aims to identify the main bioclimatic drivers of pomegranate distribution in Morocco, map its current ecological suitability, and project potential changes under future climate scenarios for the 2040 and 2060 horizons. Species distribution modeling was conducted using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) coupled with GIS tools, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-3.4, SSP2-4.7, and SSP5-8.5). This work represents the first national-scale modeling effort to assess the future suitability of pomegranate in Morocco. Model performance was robust, with a high AUC value (0.965) and omission rates below 10%, indicating strong predictive accuracy. Jackknife and multicollinearity analyses identified annual precipitation (BIO12), minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6), elevation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter (BIO19) as the most influential variables. Current suitability maps highlight highly favorable areas in the Marrakech-Safi and Souss-Massa plains, with moderately suitable zones around the Atlas Mountains, while arid southeastern regions show low suitability. Future projections indicate spatial shifts in suitability depending on emission scenarios. Overall, this study provides valuable decision-support information for climate-smart planning, varietal selection, and sustainable expansion of pomegranate cultivation in Morocco.</p>

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Ecological flexibility and climate adaptation of pomegranate (Punica granatum L.) in Morocco: a spatio-temporal perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Kamal El fallah,
  • Zahra El kettabi,
  • Hicham Ouhakki,
  • Driss Belghyti,
  • Jamal Charafi

摘要

Pomegranate (Punica granatum L.) is a fruit crop of major agronomic, socio-economic, and ecological importance in Morocco, where it plays a key role in sustainable agriculture, particularly in semi-arid and mountainous regions. In the context of climate change and the upward migration of climate-sensitive species, identifying resilient crops such as pomegranate is essential for anticipating future shifts in agricultural suitability. Despite its growing importance, the potential national-scale distribution of P. granatum under current and future climatic conditions remains insufficiently documented. This study aims to identify the main bioclimatic drivers of pomegranate distribution in Morocco, map its current ecological suitability, and project potential changes under future climate scenarios for the 2040 and 2060 horizons. Species distribution modeling was conducted using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) coupled with GIS tools, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-3.4, SSP2-4.7, and SSP5-8.5). This work represents the first national-scale modeling effort to assess the future suitability of pomegranate in Morocco. Model performance was robust, with a high AUC value (0.965) and omission rates below 10%, indicating strong predictive accuracy. Jackknife and multicollinearity analyses identified annual precipitation (BIO12), minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6), elevation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter (BIO19) as the most influential variables. Current suitability maps highlight highly favorable areas in the Marrakech-Safi and Souss-Massa plains, with moderately suitable zones around the Atlas Mountains, while arid southeastern regions show low suitability. Future projections indicate spatial shifts in suitability depending on emission scenarios. Overall, this study provides valuable decision-support information for climate-smart planning, varietal selection, and sustainable expansion of pomegranate cultivation in Morocco.