Predicting the potential future distribution of the geographic distribution range of Massicus raddei (Blessig, 1872) in china: insights from ensemble models
摘要
Massicus raddei (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a wood-boring pest that poses a significant threat to forest health. In order to effectively prevent climate change induced invasions and large scale outbreaks, an in-depth understanding of its dispersal potential in areas where it has not yet been reported is needed. In this study, we used an ensemble model to systematically analyse the potential geographic distribution and major bioclimatic factors of M. raddei in China under current and future climate change scenarios. The results showed that the key bioclimatic factors affecting its distribution include isothermality (Bio3), mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio8), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), and precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18). Currently, its suitable area is mainly distributed in central and northeastern China, with a suitable area of 258.72 × 104 km2. With the impact of climate change, its suitable area is expected to expand significantly in the future, with an increase of 38.39% to 54.73%. Meanwhile, the potential distribution centres are expected to expand into the north-western regions of Gansu, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Yunnan. In addition, MESS and MOD analyses validates that the bioclimatic conditions in the future expansion region are highly similar to the current. This study provides an assessment of the risk of the spread of M. raddei in the context of climate change and serves as an important reference for developing targeted monitoring and control strategies, which is significant for promoting sustainable development in agriculture and forestry.