<p>Banana is one of the most important staple crops worldwide, with global production exceeding 155 million tons annually. However, Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD) can cause severe yield losses of up to 80–<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(100\%\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, posing a serious threat to food security and agricultural economies. In this study, a stochastic delay differential model is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of BBTD. The model incorporates susceptible, latent-infected, and symptomatic banana plant populations, along with susceptible and infected aphid vectors. To enhance biological realism, environmental stochasticity and transmission delays are included in the formulation. A comprehensive qualitative analysis is conducted to determine the disease-free equilibrium, stability conditions, stochastic basic reproduction number, and criteria for disease extinction and persistence. In addition, several numerical schemes, including the Euler–Maruyama method, stochastic Runge–Kutta method, and stochastic nonstandard finite difference scheme, are implemented to analyze the model dynamics. Parameter estimation is performed using survey-based data, and numerical simulations are carried out to examine the impact of key parameters. The results indicate that transmission rates significantly promote disease spread, while delay effects reduce transmission intensity. Furthermore, environmental noise plays a non-negligible role in influencing disease persistence. These findings provide valuable insights into the control and management of BBTD and demonstrate the importance of incorporating stochasticity and delay effects in plant disease modeling.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

A stochastic delay differential model for banana bunchy top disease: transmission dynamics and numerical analysis

  • Umar Shafique,
  • Ali Raza,
  • Marek Lampart,
  • Emad Fadhal,
  • Faridah Alruwaili

摘要

Banana is one of the most important staple crops worldwide, with global production exceeding 155 million tons annually. However, Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD) can cause severe yield losses of up to 80– \(100\%\) , posing a serious threat to food security and agricultural economies. In this study, a stochastic delay differential model is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of BBTD. The model incorporates susceptible, latent-infected, and symptomatic banana plant populations, along with susceptible and infected aphid vectors. To enhance biological realism, environmental stochasticity and transmission delays are included in the formulation. A comprehensive qualitative analysis is conducted to determine the disease-free equilibrium, stability conditions, stochastic basic reproduction number, and criteria for disease extinction and persistence. In addition, several numerical schemes, including the Euler–Maruyama method, stochastic Runge–Kutta method, and stochastic nonstandard finite difference scheme, are implemented to analyze the model dynamics. Parameter estimation is performed using survey-based data, and numerical simulations are carried out to examine the impact of key parameters. The results indicate that transmission rates significantly promote disease spread, while delay effects reduce transmission intensity. Furthermore, environmental noise plays a non-negligible role in influencing disease persistence. These findings provide valuable insights into the control and management of BBTD and demonstrate the importance of incorporating stochasticity and delay effects in plant disease modeling.