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<p>Nonpoint source pollution threatens global water quality, primarily by accelerating the eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems. This study presents a global-scale assessment of synthetic fertilizer-derived phosphorus loss (SFDPL) in runoff, aiming to (1) characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of SFDPL and identify critical hotspots across 520 major river basins, and (2) evaluate the impact of input data uncertainties on SFDPL estimations. Using an empirical model at 0.5-degree spatial resolution, we quantified SFDPL from 1994 to 2001. Results showed a global average of 6.94 kg P/ha/yr and a median of 9.35 kg P/ha/yr, with major hotspots in southeastern Asia, Europe, South America, Japan, and New Zealand. Temporal analysis revealed increasing phosphorus loss risks in basins such as the Yangtze, Ganges, and Danube. To assess the impact of input data uncertainty, we conducted an ensemble of simulations using eight precipitation, four runoff, and two fertilizer datasets. Our findings indicated high uncertainty in approximately 62% of global river basin areas, particularly in the Niger, Orange, Orinoco, Tocantins, Amazon, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Yangtze, and Ganges basins. Our sensitivity analysis revealed that these uncertainties are primarily driven by hydrological variability rather than fertilizer application alone. The spatial mismatch between high-input regions and high-uncertainty areas further underscores the complex interplay of climatic and hydrological factors in phosphorus transport. This study identifies key data gaps and vulnerable regions, providing a foundation for enhanced monitoring and more informed policymaking for sustainable fertilizer management under uncertainty.</p>

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Hotspots and uncertainties in agricultural phosphorus runoff from synthetic fertilizers: a global assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月3日

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  • Mohammad Kian Golkar,
  • Razi Sheikholeslami,
  • Soroush Abolfathi

摘要

Nonpoint source pollution threatens global water quality, primarily by accelerating the eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems. This study presents a global-scale assessment of synthetic fertilizer-derived phosphorus loss (SFDPL) in runoff, aiming to (1) characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of SFDPL and identify critical hotspots across 520 major river basins, and (2) evaluate the impact of input data uncertainties on SFDPL estimations. Using an empirical model at 0.5-degree spatial resolution, we quantified SFDPL from 1994 to 2001. Results showed a global average of 6.94 kg P/ha/yr and a median of 9.35 kg P/ha/yr, with major hotspots in southeastern Asia, Europe, South America, Japan, and New Zealand. Temporal analysis revealed increasing phosphorus loss risks in basins such as the Yangtze, Ganges, and Danube. To assess the impact of input data uncertainty, we conducted an ensemble of simulations using eight precipitation, four runoff, and two fertilizer datasets. Our findings indicated high uncertainty in approximately 62% of global river basin areas, particularly in the Niger, Orange, Orinoco, Tocantins, Amazon, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Yangtze, and Ganges basins. Our sensitivity analysis revealed that these uncertainties are primarily driven by hydrological variability rather than fertilizer application alone. The spatial mismatch between high-input regions and high-uncertainty areas further underscores the complex interplay of climatic and hydrological factors in phosphorus transport. This study identifies key data gaps and vulnerable regions, providing a foundation for enhanced monitoring and more informed policymaking for sustainable fertilizer management under uncertainty.