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<p>Sustainable economic development has been threatened by the water scarcity driven by water quality pollution and insufficient water quantity. Water scarcity risk (WSR) combines local economic risks with virtual risks transmitted through trade to distant regions and sectors. Yet most related studies use coarse spatial scales and mainly consider water quantity, thereby many underestimate risk and overlook critical hotspots—for example, water-secure provinces may contain stressed cities, and regions sufficient in quantity may face scarcity once quality is considered. This study quantifies the higher resolution city-level assessment of economic risk of water scarcity from 2012 to 2020, which integrates water quantity and quality, environmental flow requirement, and economic output. The results show that water pollution amplifies economic water scarcity risks by 1.44 times. City-level analysis doubles risk estimates relative to provincial studies, revealing sharp intra-provincial variation. However, in a few trade-intensive provinces such as Jiangsu, provincial-level accounting overestimates the risk. In addition, the analysis highlights hotspots—Beijing and Shanghai as exporters with a wide reach, versus Weihai and Yantai with concentrated local inflows. Our study provides scientific evidence to support more targeted and effective water management strategies.</p>

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High-resolution urban assessment of economic risks from water quantity-quality scarcity and trade

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Mengke Peng,
  • Chenyang Shuai,
  • Zhenhua Huang,
  • Xi Chen,
  • Chenglong Wang,
  • Bu Zhao

摘要

Sustainable economic development has been threatened by the water scarcity driven by water quality pollution and insufficient water quantity. Water scarcity risk (WSR) combines local economic risks with virtual risks transmitted through trade to distant regions and sectors. Yet most related studies use coarse spatial scales and mainly consider water quantity, thereby many underestimate risk and overlook critical hotspots—for example, water-secure provinces may contain stressed cities, and regions sufficient in quantity may face scarcity once quality is considered. This study quantifies the higher resolution city-level assessment of economic risk of water scarcity from 2012 to 2020, which integrates water quantity and quality, environmental flow requirement, and economic output. The results show that water pollution amplifies economic water scarcity risks by 1.44 times. City-level analysis doubles risk estimates relative to provincial studies, revealing sharp intra-provincial variation. However, in a few trade-intensive provinces such as Jiangsu, provincial-level accounting overestimates the risk. In addition, the analysis highlights hotspots—Beijing and Shanghai as exporters with a wide reach, versus Weihai and Yantai with concentrated local inflows. Our study provides scientific evidence to support more targeted and effective water management strategies.