Scholarlink

<p>The Lesser Sunda Islands (comprising Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara) are situated between three seismic sources: the subduction zone, the fold-thrust belt (FTB), and the back-arc thrust fault system in the north. The combined activity of these three sources makes the region highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards. The high population density in coastal areas and the presence of critical infrastructure in this region increase the urgency of conducting a tsunami hazard assessment. This study aims to analyze the tsunami hazard using a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) based on a Green’s function approach, derived from simulations of the Shallow Water Equation (SWE). A total of 10,120 tsunami scenarios were developed from 9 fault sources using the stochastic slip distribution based on the Von Karman correlation function. All faults were divided into 108 subfaults to estimate the response of the tsunami wave at 255 observation points. The locations with the highest frequency per year for waves exceeding 1&#xa0;m include Jembrana and Buleleng, northern and southern Sumbawa, as well as Sikka and west Manggarai. The tsunami hazard maps indicate that for a return period (RP) of 2475 years, more than 57% of the locations experience tsunami waves exceeding 3&#xa0;m, with maximum heights reaching over 11&#xa0;m. For the return period of 475 years, the rate is more than 0.4%, and for the return period of 72 years, there’s no location where the tsunami wave height exceeds 3&#xa0;m. The faults from the Bali subduction zone, the Sumbawa thrust, the Flores thrust, and the Timor FTB are the dominant contributors to the tsunami hazard in 20 strategic locations. The quantitative results from this study are beneficial for disaster risk reduction planning, such as the determination of tsunami evacuation routes, safe zones, and prioritization of coastal infrastructure protection. In addition, the PTHA results support the development of an early warning system and coastal spatial planning policies to reduce potential tsunami impact in the Lesser Sunda Islands.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in the Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

查看全文
  • Shofia Karima,
  • Hamzah Latief,
  • Iyan E. Mulia

摘要

The Lesser Sunda Islands (comprising Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara) are situated between three seismic sources: the subduction zone, the fold-thrust belt (FTB), and the back-arc thrust fault system in the north. The combined activity of these three sources makes the region highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards. The high population density in coastal areas and the presence of critical infrastructure in this region increase the urgency of conducting a tsunami hazard assessment. This study aims to analyze the tsunami hazard using a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) based on a Green’s function approach, derived from simulations of the Shallow Water Equation (SWE). A total of 10,120 tsunami scenarios were developed from 9 fault sources using the stochastic slip distribution based on the Von Karman correlation function. All faults were divided into 108 subfaults to estimate the response of the tsunami wave at 255 observation points. The locations with the highest frequency per year for waves exceeding 1 m include Jembrana and Buleleng, northern and southern Sumbawa, as well as Sikka and west Manggarai. The tsunami hazard maps indicate that for a return period (RP) of 2475 years, more than 57% of the locations experience tsunami waves exceeding 3 m, with maximum heights reaching over 11 m. For the return period of 475 years, the rate is more than 0.4%, and for the return period of 72 years, there’s no location where the tsunami wave height exceeds 3 m. The faults from the Bali subduction zone, the Sumbawa thrust, the Flores thrust, and the Timor FTB are the dominant contributors to the tsunami hazard in 20 strategic locations. The quantitative results from this study are beneficial for disaster risk reduction planning, such as the determination of tsunami evacuation routes, safe zones, and prioritization of coastal infrastructure protection. In addition, the PTHA results support the development of an early warning system and coastal spatial planning policies to reduce potential tsunami impact in the Lesser Sunda Islands.