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<p>This paper investigates the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation in Schleswig-Holstein, a state in Northern Germany, using both statistical and graphical trend analysis methods. The study uses data from 30 meteorological stations, covering the period from 1973 to 2022. It applies various techniques, including the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, and the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA). These methods are employed to assess the distribution and temporal trends of precipitation on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis. The results reveal significant seasonal and regional variations in precipitation patterns. Notably, winter and summer months exhibit increasing trends, while spring and autumn tend to show declines. These patterns are strongly influenced by large-scale climate modes: for instance, positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are associated with wetter winter and summer conditions, while Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) variability appears to influence convective summer rainfall. The integration of the innovative IPTA method with traditional approaches provides a more comprehensive understanding of precipitation variability and could enhance the precision of future climate predictions. These findings are critical for water resource management and adapting to climate changes in the region.</p>

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Unveiling precipitation patterns in Schleswig-Holstein: a 50-year study of trends and climatic influences

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月8日

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  • Lijin Zhou,
  • Christoph Kulls,
  • Ozgur Kisi

摘要

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation in Schleswig-Holstein, a state in Northern Germany, using both statistical and graphical trend analysis methods. The study uses data from 30 meteorological stations, covering the period from 1973 to 2022. It applies various techniques, including the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, and the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA). These methods are employed to assess the distribution and temporal trends of precipitation on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis. The results reveal significant seasonal and regional variations in precipitation patterns. Notably, winter and summer months exhibit increasing trends, while spring and autumn tend to show declines. These patterns are strongly influenced by large-scale climate modes: for instance, positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are associated with wetter winter and summer conditions, while Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) variability appears to influence convective summer rainfall. The integration of the innovative IPTA method with traditional approaches provides a more comprehensive understanding of precipitation variability and could enhance the precision of future climate predictions. These findings are critical for water resource management and adapting to climate changes in the region.