<p>Earthquake-induced landslides are hazardous geological events that may induce catastrophic and cascading impacts on livelihood and infrastructure in mountainous terrains. The likelihood of earthquake-induced landslides in the Himalayas is studied over different regions, including the Uttarakhand state. However, limited studies address the district-wise zonation of hazards under different Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) distribution scenarios, which is essential for regional and town planning. In this study, we present a framework for analysing the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides under PGA distribution scenarios over the Uttarakhand state estimated from a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of earthquakes under different return periods and probability of exceedance. Using this framework, we statistically quantify the spatial extents of earthquake-induced landslide hazard in different zones per district in Uttarakhand, India, through a bivariate statistical analysis method. Our results suggest that the spatial extents of earthquake-induced landslides vary with different PGA distribution scenarios across return periods and districts. The maximum damage from earthquake-induced landslides is expected in Rudraprayag district under all scenarios, followed by Pithoragarh, Chamoli, and Uttarkashi districts. We also find that the percentage of areas susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides is higher than landslides under static scenarios. The findings of this study could be useful in proposing appropriate guidelines and potential mitigation measures to minimise losses to individuals and prevent property damage. The disaster management authorities and policymakers shall utilise these findings to actively implement guidelines prepared using the suggested hazard zones to reduce the risks associated with earthquake-induced landslides significantly.</p>

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Scenario-based probabilistic risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides in Uttarakhand, India

  • Akshat Vashistha,
  • Shivani Joshi,
  • Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian

摘要

Earthquake-induced landslides are hazardous geological events that may induce catastrophic and cascading impacts on livelihood and infrastructure in mountainous terrains. The likelihood of earthquake-induced landslides in the Himalayas is studied over different regions, including the Uttarakhand state. However, limited studies address the district-wise zonation of hazards under different Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) distribution scenarios, which is essential for regional and town planning. In this study, we present a framework for analysing the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides under PGA distribution scenarios over the Uttarakhand state estimated from a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of earthquakes under different return periods and probability of exceedance. Using this framework, we statistically quantify the spatial extents of earthquake-induced landslide hazard in different zones per district in Uttarakhand, India, through a bivariate statistical analysis method. Our results suggest that the spatial extents of earthquake-induced landslides vary with different PGA distribution scenarios across return periods and districts. The maximum damage from earthquake-induced landslides is expected in Rudraprayag district under all scenarios, followed by Pithoragarh, Chamoli, and Uttarkashi districts. We also find that the percentage of areas susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides is higher than landslides under static scenarios. The findings of this study could be useful in proposing appropriate guidelines and potential mitigation measures to minimise losses to individuals and prevent property damage. The disaster management authorities and policymakers shall utilise these findings to actively implement guidelines prepared using the suggested hazard zones to reduce the risks associated with earthquake-induced landslides significantly.