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<p>The impacts of climate change extend beyond Pakistan's borders, bringing forth severe challenges and raising concerns about potential consequences. Pakistan, one of the most vulnerable countries to the severe impacts of climate change, has experienced increasingly exacerbated effects over the past two decades. This study examines the coherence of climate variables with crops and fruits production. For this purpose, a time–frequency exploration was conducted using wavelet coherence analysis. Furthermore, ensemble climate projections were developed for three Homogeneous Climate Regions (HCRs) within the study area. The creation of HCRs involved integrating cluster analysis and L-moments, utilizing Reconnaissance Drought Index data. Coherence results reveal varying relationships between crops and climate variables, with some crops exhibiting positive coherence and others displaying negative coherence during specific time intervals. For instance, Average precipitation is in significant in-phase coherence with Aprecot, Jowar, Barley, Wheat and Sesamum over the study domain. Ensemble climate projections, considering the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, indicate a consistent upward trend in minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the twenty-first century. Notably, minimum temperatures display a higher rate of increase under both SSPs. The projected results reveal that average maximum temperatures may reach 47–48&#xa0;°C and remain under 45&#xa0;°C, under SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5, respectively, in region 2 during the summer season. Precipitation trends vary across the months and HCRs, with the most substantial increases noted in August for Region 2 and June–September for Region 3 under both pathways. The agriculture sector can guide farmers to invest in crops which can cope with the projected climatic conditions and provide better production in the future. In addition, the findings of this study can assist policy makers in the areas of water management, urban planning and health.</p>

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Unveiling divergent crop signals in the face of climate variability and ensemble climate projections using CMIP6 data in the South-West of Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月23日

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  • Beenish Javed,
  • Firdos Khan,
  • Muhammad Abbas,
  • Shaukat Ali

摘要

The impacts of climate change extend beyond Pakistan's borders, bringing forth severe challenges and raising concerns about potential consequences. Pakistan, one of the most vulnerable countries to the severe impacts of climate change, has experienced increasingly exacerbated effects over the past two decades. This study examines the coherence of climate variables with crops and fruits production. For this purpose, a time–frequency exploration was conducted using wavelet coherence analysis. Furthermore, ensemble climate projections were developed for three Homogeneous Climate Regions (HCRs) within the study area. The creation of HCRs involved integrating cluster analysis and L-moments, utilizing Reconnaissance Drought Index data. Coherence results reveal varying relationships between crops and climate variables, with some crops exhibiting positive coherence and others displaying negative coherence during specific time intervals. For instance, Average precipitation is in significant in-phase coherence with Aprecot, Jowar, Barley, Wheat and Sesamum over the study domain. Ensemble climate projections, considering the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, indicate a consistent upward trend in minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the twenty-first century. Notably, minimum temperatures display a higher rate of increase under both SSPs. The projected results reveal that average maximum temperatures may reach 47–48 °C and remain under 45 °C, under SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5, respectively, in region 2 during the summer season. Precipitation trends vary across the months and HCRs, with the most substantial increases noted in August for Region 2 and June–September for Region 3 under both pathways. The agriculture sector can guide farmers to invest in crops which can cope with the projected climatic conditions and provide better production in the future. In addition, the findings of this study can assist policy makers in the areas of water management, urban planning and health.